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ON A CONSERVATIVE BAYESIAN METHOD OF INFERRING EXTINCTION Literature Cited


Alroy, J. 2014. A simple Bayesian method of inferring extinction. Paleobiology 40:584–607.


——. 2015. Current extinction rates of reptiles and amphibians. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 112:13003–13008.


——. 2016.Asimple Bayesian method of inferring extinction: reply. Ecology (in press). Bradshaw, C. J. A., A. Cooper, C. S. M. Turney, and B. W. Brook. 2012. Robust estimates of extinction time in the geological record. Quaternary Science Reviews 33:14–19. Burgman, M. A., R. C. Grimson, and S. Ferson. 1995. Inferring threat from scientific collections. Conservation Biology 9:923–928.


Caley, P., and S. C. Barry. 2014. Quantifying extinction probabilities from sighting records: inference and uncertainties. PLoS ONE 9: e95857.


Collen, B., A. Purvis, andG.M.Mace. 2010. When is a species really extinct? Testing extinction inference from a sighting record to inform conservation assessment. Diversity and Distributions 16:755–764. Goodman, L. A. 1952. Serial number analysis. Journal of the American Statistical Association 47:622–634.


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Höhle, M., and L. Held. 2006. Bayesian estimation of the size of a population. Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München Institut für Statistik Sonderforschungsbereich 386:1–12.


Marshall, C. R. 1999. Fossil gap analysis supports early Tertiary origin of trophically diverse avian orders: comment. Geology, 27–95.


——. 2010. Using confidence intervals to quantify the uncertainty in the end-points of stratigraphic ranges. Paleontological Society Papers 16:291–316.


Marshall, C. R., and P. D. Ward. 1996. Sudden and gradual molluscan extinctions in the latest Cretaceous of western European Tethys. Science 274:1360–1363.


Rivadeneira, M. M., G. Hunt, and K. Roy. 2009. The use of sighting records to infer species extinction: an evaluation of different methods. Ecology 90:1291–1300.


Roberts, D. L., and A. R. Solow. 2003. Flightless birds: when did the dodo become extinct? Nature 426:245.


Solow, A. 2016. A simple Bayesian method for inferring extinction: comment. Ecology (in press). doi:10.1890/15-0336.1.


Strauss, D., and P. M. Sadler. 1989. Classical confidence intervals and Bayesian probability estimates for ends of local taxon ranges. Mathematical Geology 21:411–427.


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