NPD Column
Christmas came early... or late...
NPD’s Jez Fraser-Hook looks at the big fi ve European toy markets in the run-up to the Christmas trading period.
weeks until Christmas, at the time of writing, we take a look at trends across the big five European toy markets so far in 2013, as well as identifying some of the performances during the early part of the ever-important Christmas period and how Christmas purchases vary by country across Europe.
D 50 Toyworld The UK, the largest toy market within Europe,
and Germany, the second largest, are showing opposite trends based on the first 46 weeks of 2013. Germany is showing sales up 3% driven by a stellar first half of the year. In contrast, the UK market is down 2%, due in part to the lack of a hero film release, such as a Toy Story 3 or Cars 2, which we’ve seen boost European sales in recent years. The mix of branded product with licensed merchandise is one of the key differences in how sales are distributed in the two largest European markets. Germany has the lowest mix of licensed product in Europe where the market is driven more by core brands such as Playmobil and Lego. Licensed product i n Germany represents 21.2% of total sales this year compared to over 26% in the UK market. One of the most challenging economic situations across Europe remains in the South where unemployment continues to impact consumers discretionary spend. Following a difficult 2012 for the toy trade in Spain, the first steps to a recovery are under way with the market flat so far this year. Italy remains a tough market for toys with sales down 4% and March, due to the Easter influence, representing the single month of sales growth. The last of the big five European countries is France, which reflects a more positive message with sales growth of 1%, assisted largely by a strong tablets performance. Current trends from October and November
show the big five European markets in decline so far this peak season. Does quicker turnaround for online delivery and last minute deals at retail mean the savvy toy consumers are potentially leaving their toy shopping later and later?
mon Tue
W e d n e s d a y
thu Sat Sun mon Tue thu fri Sat Sun Tue
W e d n e s d a y
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
espite some consistencies crossing European toy markets, each individual country has its own unique traits throughout the calendar year. With just five
UK
Xmas later and later each year. Myth or reality?
December’s £% per year - UK
Week 52 +40%
25.8 21.9 23.0 23.4 23.5 24.3 24.8 24.9 25.7
Week 52 +65%
26.8 23.0 23.2 24.5
The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and Confidential
Source Retail Tracking Service
1
The reliance on December for the toy trade is obvious, but is the notion observed by retailers and manufacturers that Christmas is coming later each year fact or fiction? A key point to note is that the UK market is the
least reliant on December sales. This is due to a higher percentage of purchases for “no special occasion” throughout the year, and helped by multiple retail channels investing in space out of peak season periods. Interestingly, 52% of toy sales in Spain occur in December, making the month even more nerve wracking for the trade. As well as supporting toys during the off-peak January–September period, it’s also clear to see that many more Christmas toy purchases are brought forward into the October and November months as retailers attract customers with early-season promotions. This is shown when
reviewing 2012 monthly sales, where 25% of total UK toy purchases occurred during the October to November period. This is compared with 22% in France, 19% in Germany and just 17% in Spain. There’s no clear evidence in the UK that more
sales are going through the month of December compared to the past. In 2008 and 2009, however, over 25% of sales were in December but for each of the last three years this figure has slipped below 25%, suggesting sales may in fact be moving to pre-December. A likely scenario is that more product is being sold over tighter time periods; whether that be condensed into a week prior to Christmas or an even smaller period such as a Black Friday or Cyber Monday. Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to you
all.
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