As the economy of a country develops, the population of that country grows very slowly, then very rapidly and finally very slowly or not at all. This is known as the population cycle or the ‘demographic transition’ model.
High Fluctuating STAGE 1
10 20 30 40
0 T O T A L STAGE 1
A country is poorly economically developed. The birth and death rates are both very high. Countries may be experiencing war, famine and diseases. Population can fluctuate or grow very slowly.
Example: Somalia STAGE 2
The economy is starting to grow. Birth rates remain high, but the death rates now begin to fall because of better food, medical care and supply of clean water. Population now grows very quickly. There is a natural increase.
Example: Nigeria STAGE 3
The economy is continuing to grow. People begin to plan the size of their families; so, the birth rate now begins to fall. The rate of population growth slows down.
Example: India STAGE 4
The economy is now considered developed. Most people are living long lives, but they are having fewer children. Both the birth and death rates are now low. Population now fluctuates and only increases very slowly.
Example: Ireland
Managing information and thinking:
Using the demographic transition model, answer the following questions: 1. Why do you think Stage 1 is known as the ‘High Fluctuating’ stage? 2. In what stage does the death rate decline most rapidly? Why is this the case? 3. Compare and contrast stages 2 and 4. Name two differences between them. 4. What stage do you think Ireland will enter in the future? Give one reason for your answer.
243 STAGE 5
The economy is very well developed. Women are having very few children, and most people are living into old age. The population is now in decline – there is a natural decrease.
Example: Germany Early Expanding STAGE 2 Late Expanding STAGE 3 Low Fluctuating STAGE 4
Key Words transition’ model Natural Decrease STAGE 5
