MOVING THROUGH COVID-19 Specialist


Adam Brohimer President Category Partners


CHALLENGES IN FINDING SOLUTIONS After Six Months


With the pantry-loading shopping behavior and initial quarantine periods now in the rearview mirror, we have a better idea of how shopping behavior has shifted in perishables departments. This gives us a better idea of the behaviors that were triggered by initial consumer confusion and fear associated with COVID-19 versus what appear to be the longer term behaviors that may persist as the country deals with the economic impact.


One challenge is separating the shopping behaviors that are a result of specific concerns related to COVID-19 as opposed to behaviors triggered by economic necessity. With job losses facing a segment of the population, it is predictable that these consumers will be forced to modify shopping patterns and purchases regardless of how widely the virus spreads.


In general, consumer studies indicate that concerns regarding COVID-19 have not abated and remain at levels fairly consistent since the beginning of the quarantine period. However, consumer shopping behavior is moderating with trip frequency at around pre-COVID levels. This is also aligned with scan data indicating that purchase behavior has stabilized across all perishable departments. Sales levels remain elevated but this appears to be more a function of replacement consumption driven by the continued closures of out-of-home dining options.


Not surprisingly, consumers say they remain more


focused on home cooking and meal prep which has raised ingredient purchases including those in perishable departments. However, consumer interest in home food prep has fallen off the very high levels seen during the initial waves of the pandemic.


We should expect changed purchase priorities among those consumers whose household financial position or job status has been negatively impacted. While the number of consumers reporting loss of employment hours or declining financial condition has dropped considerably from the high levels experienced in the opening weeks of the crisis, nonetheless, a significant portion of consumers continue to struggle.


This likely means that a segment of consumers will be forced to spend conservatively on food shopping trips. Packages and products deemed discretionary will face resistance. As seen in past periods of economic uncertainty, consumers begin to favor those products and categories that deliver value. That can be larger-sized packages, private label products, or even a shift from premium-priced products to more mainstream alternatives.


One challenge within deli and bakery operations has been the closure of many self-service store options as supermarkets work to ensure proper sanitation (salad/soup bars, bulk foods, self-serve bakery products, etc.). This is evident in the fact that more than 5 months into the COVID-19 crisis, supermarket deli and bakery sales have struggled versus the same weeks one year ago. Contrast this with a number of departments that continue to experience


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WHAT’S IN STORE | 2020


© 2020 International Dairy Deli Bakery Association


Industry Landscape

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