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Tech-Op-ed May, 2018 SOUNDING OFF
By Michael Skinner Editor
Adopt-an-Orbit: Picking up Space Trash
pieces of space junk larger than four inches and millions of smaller bits cur- rently circle the planet. Since the advent of space travel, more specifically, the widespread
A
launching of Earth-orbiting satellites, the primary source of this garbage has been objects that were destroyed by accident. In 2007, however, Fengyun-1C, a Chinese weather satellite, was intentionally destroyed as part of an anti- satellite missile test, exploding into approximately 3,000 pieces of trackable space debris. Two years later, an aging Russian military satellite collided with an American Iridium satellite, adding another 2,000 bits of junk to the total. And of course, Motorola had no legal recourse against the Russians. More than 7,000 satellites have been launched into orbit, with only about
a quarter of them still functioning. That number is expected to triple, as com- panies plan to launch “mega-constellations” in the near future, which are groups of satellites designed to provide worldwide Internet coverage. All of this whirling shrapnel together has been named The Kessler Syn-
drome, after NASA scientist Donald. J. Kessler, who predicted in 1978 that low-Earth orbit would eventually be so packed with trash that the band of space would become unusable. The atmospheric drag on satellites in very low-Earth orbit does eventu-
ally lead to orbital decay, causing the object to sink farther toward Earth and burn up upon re-entry. But, the fact remains that most of our space waste is doomed to circle the planet endlessly for the next foreseeable hundred thou- sand years. In response, organizations including DARPA have invested heavily in
powerful telescopes that can be used to spot ever-smaller debris. The idea be- hind this move is that we can’t clean up what we can’t see in the first place. Cleaning up our mess in space is both a logistical and diplomatic chal-
lenge. One of the most ambitious solutions at the moment is the European Space Agency’s (ESA) plan to launch a robot that will grapple large pieces of trash and maneuver them toward Earth to burn. Though, what’s to keep a trash-grabbing robot from “accidentally” taking down foreign spy satellites? Other suggestions include harpoons fired from spacecraft, huge magnets, blankets of expanding foam, and using lasers to deflect objects. The international timeline for self-destruction, intended to prevent
adding to the mass of space trash, is that an orbiting satellite should burn up in the atmosphere 25 years after the end of its operational life. This is already becoming far too long. SpaceX has limited its spacecraft to less than five years and other private space exploration companies will likely follow suit. But, giv- en the density of orbiting trash, there are no assurances that such a planned self-destruct might not inadvertently collide with some other still-functioning satellites. One main project is to round up Envisat, an Earth-observing satellite
that died in 2012. The $2.9 billion dollar, nine-ton hunk is expected to remain in orbit for about 150 years, circling our planet in a lonely ellipse once every 101 minutes, unless efforts can be made to catch it. At any rate, it’s difficult to agree on a solution when the cost is so prohib-
itive and there are seemingly more urgent matters closer to the ground. Bring- ing attention to the problem is one way to make sure that future generations will be able to see the stars, rather than a blanket of gleaming shrapnel. It’s possible that private space companies will find a way to mitigate the
damage of orbital junk and to collaborate with others, motivated by the yet untapped profits of space travel. Unsurprisingly, national governments have placed little emphasis on preserving orbital space for future launches. Compa- nies in this new, privatized space race will have to find ways to outrun both the competition and the expanding fields of orbital wreckage. r
The Silk Road in the 21st Century
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hina’s most ambitious economic development to date, the “One Belt, One Road” initiative is now a couple of years old and still shakily climb- ing to its feet. The massive project, which seeks to turn Eurasia into a
global hub of trade to rival that of the West, spans more than 68 countries— approximately 65 percent of the world’s population and 40 percent of its GDP. One of the main challenges of the program is the lack of infrastructure
in most of the participating countries. Since 2013, China has spent about $150 billion per year in the countries that have signed on. Much of this investment, especially in Malaysia, Myanmar and Indonesia, threaten to bury the partner countries in debt. So far, the West’s response has been a complacent one. Re- gardless of the growing pains that are inevitable as China works to build up its neighbors — already many allegations of misused funds and conflicting in- terests — the emphasis on global trade infrastructure is good for the world. Each time we travel to NEPCON China, as we are this month from April
24 to 26, Shanghai seems to sprout another district. The electronics industry is booming there, with the country accounting for about half of the worldwide demand for chips. Throughout 2018, many brand-new wafer fabs will be en- tering mass production in China, taking back some semiconductor ground from Taiwan, a market that has traditionally been the island’s sweet spot. President Xi Jinping is determined to exert China’s influence and prove
to the world that his country is a leader in trade, manufacturing and technol- ogy. One Belt, One Road underscores Xi’s divergence from past leaders, such as Deng Xiaoping, and shows his aversion to keeping a low profile. There are many problems with One Belt, One Road, and it may struggle
on under the weight of its ambition for a decade before China and its partners see real success. The possibility of a trade war may also force China to push the project harder. If China wishes to reposition itself as a more open country and attract foreign investment, rebuild- ing the ancient Silk Road is a necessary first step. r
t speeds of up to four miles per second, even flecks of paint become dead- ly missiles in low-Earth orbit. Pieces of debris collide, turning into met- al-shredding clouds of orbital trash. It is estimated that some 30,000
PUBLISHER’S NOTE
By Jacob Fattal Publisher
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