news digest ♦ LEDs percent, and is estimated by Lux Research.
The LED industry expects “low volume/high product mix” products to still be priced like commodities. And to makes things harder, the only “large” potential customers for SSL devices would be Philips Lighting, Osram and General Electric, but two of the three are vertically integrated and have their own source of LEDs that covers a large percentage of their needs.
In 2014, after years of anticipation, promises an d excitement, General Lighting will no longer be “at the corner” for the LED industry. However, as explained, to successfully convert this opportunity into bottom line cash, the industry will have to undergo some major transformations, and many challenges await.
First of all, the highly fragmented LED industry - with more than a hundred chip makers and thousands of packaging companies - needs some serious consolidations. Secondly, the paradigm changes of SSL implied that it’s no longer simply about making bulbs and sticking them into luminaires.
To reap the full benefits of LEDs, products will have to be designed out of the box, almost from the chip to the final installation in our living room or city hall.
Lux Research used historical trends as well as projected average price reductions to build a model that calculates the adoption rate of LEDs within each end market application - office, industrial and street lighting.
The firm found that recessed modular will emerge the largest LED luminaire market, growing from $1.5 billion in 2013 to $14.5 billion in 2023 by replacing incumbents such as fluorescent.
“As LED packages rapidly fall in cost and improve in efficiency, the cost structure of LED luminaires will shift, and present opportunities in other components such as secondary optics and drivers,” says Christopher Hwang, Lux Research Associate and the lead author of the report titled, “Casting the Light: Illuminating the Opportunities in 2023’s LED Luminaire Market.”
“This trend, in turn, influences the rate of adoption of emerging technologies, such as alternating current (AC) LEDs and high-CRI LEDs in recessed modular, high-bay and roadway luminaires,” he adds.
Lux Research analysts examined the LED landscape in order to identify the largest opportunities within the luminaire market for investors, technology developers and component suppliers. Among the firm’s findings:
Efficiencies will drive down LED package costs. LED package costs will fall over 80 percent to less than $4/ klm on improved efficiency, increased manufacturing yields and utilization. As a result, the bill of materials (BOM) of a standard 3,500 lumen recessed modular luminaire will fall 35 percent, from $85 in 2013 to $55 in 2023.
High-CRI LED will remain a niche product. AC LED-
Lux: LED lighting market to grow over 12-fold
Recessed modular will emerge as the largest luminaire market as LEDs displace incumbent technologies such as fluorescents
Driven by superior features and falling costs, the market for LED luminaires, or optimised permanent light fixtures, will grow more than 12-fold over the next decade - from $2 billion today to $25 billion in 2023.
This is a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25 68
www.compoundsemiconductor.net January / February 2014
based luminaires will become cost competitive by 2018, but will provide a technology advantage only in low-power applications, such as recessed modular luminaires. In contrast, high-CRI luminaires will remain a niche product, with a 9 percent cost premium by 2023, finding adoption in high-occupancy applications.
Optics market represents a huge opportunity. The
LED package market will be dwarfed by opportunities in optics and drivers. The secondary optics market will be the single biggest growth opportunity in components, growing to $6.9 billion in 2023, while the drivers market will reach $4.9 billion.
The report, titled, «Casting the Light: Illuminating the Opportunities in 2023›s LED Luminaire Market,» is part of the Lux Research Energy Electronics Intelligence service.
Material could speed up underwater communications
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