Stage 4: Low Fluctuating Stage


Stage 4 is also known as the low stationary stage and is experienced by highly economically developed countries. Both birth rates and death rates are low due to a high standard of living, high levels of education, highly developed healthcare systems and equal employment opportunities for women. Birth rates are low, since children are seen as an economic liability. The cost of raising a child is very high and the larger a family is, the more economic pressure there is to provide for children. The populations of Stage 4 countries are highly urbanised, where land prices and housing are more expensive. This also limits the number of children a family can cater for within the home.


World average Japan


United Kingdom


Death rates are low, since life expectancy is high – roughly 80 years. Countries in the developed world reached Stage 4 in the latter half of the twentieth century, e.g. Ireland, the US and France.


Stage 5: The Senile Stage


Stage 5 is characterised by birth rates that are lower than death rates. Birth rates are well below replacement levels, as women delay having children and can pursue careers. Therefore, women have much smaller families. As there are very few children being born, the population ages. This is referred to as ‘greying’. Greying has serious economic consequences as there are not enough young workers to fill the vacancies when older generations retire. In order to fill theses vacancies, a country in Stage 5 depends on immigration. Stage 5 is a relatively new population trend, with countries such as Germany, Japan, Croatia and Greece experiencing population decline.


CASE STUDY F


Although Germany is the 16th most populous country in the world, with 81.5 million people, its birth rates have been lower than its death rates for over 50 years. In 2013, Germany’s birth rate was 8 per 1,000, while its death rate was 11 per 1,000. Tis means that Germany should be experiencing a population decline of 0.2 per cent per year. However, Germany’s total population continues to grow due to immigration.


GEO DICTIONARY


Greying: in geographical terms, this means that the population of a country gets older; therefore, there are not enough young workers to replace those who retire


Ageing planet USA Russia China Turkey


South Africa


11.7% 29.2 32.3% 45.9 28% 40.2 19.7% 37.4 19% 38.3 13.9% 35.4 10.8% 29.4 8.6% 26


The proportion of people over 60 years (of total population) Average (median) age of the population


: Fig. 1.21 An ageing world


POPULATION CHANGE OVER TIME AND SPACE


19


A


Z


Elective 5: Human CHAPTER 1


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