1.6 The Demographic
Transitional Model The rapid increase in the world’s population has led demographers to believe that as a country develops, both economically and socially, it goes through a series of predictable changes regarding birth rates, death rates and population growth. The changes are outlined in a graph known as the Demographic Transitional Model (DTM), also known as the population cycle. There are five key stages outlined in the model: l
l l l l
Stage 1: High fluctuating stage Stage 2: Early expanding stage Stage 3: Late expanding stage Stage 4: Low fluctuating stage Stage 5: Senile stage.
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
20 25
15
10 5
0 Time ) Fig. 1.17 Demographic Transitional Model
Birth rate Death rate
Total population Projection
Stage 1: High Fluctuating Stage GEO DICTIONARY
Counterbalanced: one factor which has the opposite effect of another factor; therefore, the factors balance each other out
This is also known as the high stationary stage and is characterised by high birth rates and high death rates of over 40 per 1,000. Although there are no countries in the world permanently at the high fluctuating stage, famine, war and disease can lead to countries returning to this stage for a period of time. As high birth rates are counterbalanced by death rates, population change is slow and erratic.
Why are Birth Rates so High in Stage 1?
In countries in Stage 1, women are uneducated. This means that there is a lack of family planning and also that women begin having children at a very young age. Due to a high infant mortality rate, women have as many children as possible to ensure that enough children survive to look after the parents when they are older. Agriculture is the main form of economy for regions in Stage 1. Therefore, families are large in order to provide enough labour to farm the land. In this way, children are seen as an economic asset.
16
ELECTIVE 5 PATTERNS AND PROCESSES IN THE HUMAN ENVIRONMENT
Birth rate per 1,000 population
Death rate per 1,000 population
A
Z
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