Middle East and North Africa Clemens Breisinger, Perrihan Al-Riffai, Olivier Ecker, and Danielle Resnick I
n 2014, stability, or the lack thereof, continued to be a key factor for development and food security outcomes in the Middle East
and North Africa (MENA) region.1 While several countries saw a resurgence or aggravation of con- flicts, Egypt and Tunisia enjoyed increased stability. Despite, or sometimes because of, oſten difficult secu- rity and fiscal conditions, several countries imple- mented policy reforms, including fuel subsidy cuts. With a main focus on 2015 and beyond, this essay emphasizes how improving capacity for implemen- tation as well as mechanisms of accountability can play a critical role in increasing confidence in govern- ment performance and thereby enhance the positive impacts of ongoing and future policy reforms.
STABILITY REMAINS A CHALLENGE TO DEVELOPMENT AND FOOD SECURITY
In recent years civil conflicts and their spillover effects have continued to limit progress in improv- ing economic development and food security in several MENA countries. Syria’s ongoing civil conflict caused the economy to contract by more than 40 percent between 2011 and 2013,2 and per- ceived food insecurity continued to worsen in 2014 (Table 1). In neighboring Iraq, recent advances made by the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) are threatening economic progress and raising sectar- ian tensions across the region. In Yemen, the modest progress in improving food security made in 2013 has likely been reversed by the instability related to the recent insurgency by the Houthis. Similarly, the resurgence of fighting in Libya resulted in negative per capita growth in 2013 and 2014. Such civil con- flicts as these oſten have implications for security
and stability in other countries of the region. For example, because of the challenges posed by hosting sizable numbers of refugees, peoples’ perceptions of law and order have sharply deteriorated in Jordan and Lebanon (Table 1).3 Additionally, in parts of Lebanon fighting has actually broken out among groups with sympathies to opposing combatants in Syria. In contrast, transitions in Egypt and Tunisia
have helped lead to greater stability and economic development. In Egypt, a strongly improved per- ception of stability has re-atracted domestic and foreign investment. Te most recent data on gross domestic product (GDP) confirm that investment in 2014 was about 20 percent higher than in the previous year, and the economic recovery has been accelerating. National confidence was demonstrated when the US$8.5 billion needed for financing the expansion of the Suez Canal was raised domesti- cally in only eight days. GDP expanded by 3.7 per- cent in the second quarter of 2014, compared with 2.5 percent year-on-year during the same period of 2013.4 Tese positive developments are consis- tent with the favorable changes in popular percep- tions in Egypt about the economy and food security (Table 1). Amid relative stability in 2013 and 2014 and the largely peaceful elections in October 2014, Tunisians also became more optimistic about the economy and employment (Table 1).
MAJOR FOOD POLICY CHANGES AND DEVELOPMENT
In 2014, several countries implemented significant policy reforms in the areas of fuel subsidies, agricul- ture, and food trade.
Clemens Breisinger is senior research fellow, Perrihan Al-Riffai is senior research analyst, Olivier Ecker is research fellow, Danielle Resnick is research fellow, Development Strategy and Governance Division, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC.
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