FIGURE 1 Prevalence of child stunting and annual average change in developing countries by civil conflict status


50 %


45 40 35 30 25 20 1994−2000 2005−2013


Countries unaffected by major civil conflict (N=63) Countries affected by major civil conflict at the beginning of the past two decades (N=17) Countries affected by major civil conflict at the end of the past two decades (N=10) Countries affected by major civil conflict at the beginning and the end of the past two decades (N=14)


-1.09%


AVERAGE ANNUAL CHANGE


-0.26%


-0.33% -0.77%


Source: Authors’ estimation based on data from the World Health Organization’s Global Health Observatory, the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, and the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs databases (accessed September 23, 2014).


Notes: A country is classified as affected by major civil conflict if it experienced an average of more than 100 battle-related deaths or fatalities in nonstate conflicts or other clashes over a period of three years. The beginning of the past two decades spans the period 1994–1996, and the end of the past two decades, the period 2011–2013. N is the number of countries. The country averages are calculated based on population weights. The child-stunting rates used are the first and the last estimates taken in the past two decades.


are the recent trends in food and nutrition security in countries with various degrees of civil conflict? What are the major causes of conflicts and how do various types of shocks aggravate or trigger civil conflict? We answer these questions below, and con- clude with policy options.


CONFLICT AND CHILD STUNTING


Because food and nutrition insecurity can be both a cause and a consequence of civil conflict,2 global chronic undernutrition becomes increasingly


52 HOWDOWEBREAKTHE LINKS?


concentrated in conflict-affected countries. Over the past two decades, the number of stunted children in conflict-affected countries in the developing world increased from an estimated 97.5 million (equivalent to 46 percent of all stunted children in developing countries) to 112.1 million (equivalent to 65 per- cent). In relative terms, the child stunting rates in conflict-affected countries declined at a much slower rate compared with more stable countries (Figure 1). Moreover, countries that experienced major civil conflict at the beginning of the past two decades and then managed to establish civil peace achieved faster


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