A rapid shift in consumer preferences, income, or policy in China would have immediate and wide-ranging effects on the global market of fishery products. The situation in China could (and likely will) single- handedly determine the future of the entire global market.
like shrimp and other crustaceans, as well as salmon and tuna, was projected to increase three times as fast over the projection horizon to 2030, compared with the baseline case. For other medium-value fish- ery products, such as mollusks, the growth in per capita demand was doubled relative to the baseline level, while the preferences for other fishery products remained the same.
TABLE 2 Projected difference in food demand and net trade levels in China by major species groups in 2030 under accelerated demand scenario (’000 tons and % change from baseline)
Net Food Demand Shrimp
Crustaceans Mollusks Salmon
Freshwater and diadromous Tuna
Other pelagics Major demersals Other marine
8,838 3,079
18,506 1,905 783 328 19
225 63
Trade 211% −7,139 205% −1,250
105% −12,513 196% −1,900 3%
199% -13% -4% -4%
Under this scenario, the authors projected an
overall increase in the global fish supply of nearly 23 million tons by 2030, with most of the incremen- tal production gain coming from North America, Japan, and the rest of the East Asia and Pacific region. Table 2 illustrates the implications of this scenario for consumption and trade in China for various fish species. Te simulated scenario of higher food demand in
China results in additional demand in 2030, almost equivalent to the total expected global increase in fish production in the next 20 years. While the scenario assumes significant growth in demand in China, it demonstrates that a rapid shiſt in consumer preferences, income, or policy in China would have immediate and wide-ranging effects on the global market of fishery products. Te situation in China could (and likely will) single-handedly determine the future of the entire global market. Given the very large share that this region has in the overall global demand for fisheries products, further explo- rations of economically and demographically driven demand growth in Asia on regional and global fish markets are warranted.
−615 −328 −275 223 59
Source: S. Msangi, M. Kobayashi, M. Batka, S. Vannuccini, M. M. Dey, and J. L. Anderson, Fish to 2030: Prospects for Fisheries and Aquaculture, World Bank Report No. 83177-GLB (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2013).
68 THEROLEOF FISHINGLOBALFOOD SECURITY
The Needs for Investment in Africa: The Role of Aquaculture in Agricultural Intensification Within the developing world, the region that pos- sesses some of the greatest unexploited potential for aquaculture growth is Africa. In the Fish to 2030 report, growth in aquaculture production for Africa was projected to be very low (as was shown in Table 1). Tis is first and foremost because the growth trend has been very small in the past. Of course, it is possible that aquaculture could take off in parts of Africa, as was seen in the case of coun- tries like Vietnam. But it is difficult for any model to predict and simulate rapid structural change leading to a significant takeoff (as was seen in Asia). If this indeed were to happen, significant levels of invest- ments would be needed, and such a path would only begin to manifest itself aſter successive years of sus- tained growth in the sector. Te tremendous potential for such a trajectory
exists, though it is coupled, undoubtedly, with sig- nificant—but not insurmountable—challenges. Aside from the necessary growth in production
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