FIGURE 2 Projected change in per capita protein intake from fish, 2010–2030 OTHER SOUTH ASIA +43%
CHINA +25% INDIA +18% NORTH
Net gain Net loss
AFRICA SOUTH OF THE SAHARA -18%
Source: Author calculations based upon IMPACT model projections in S. Msangi, M. Kobayashi, M. Batka, S. Vannuccini, M. M. Dey, and J. L. Anderson, Fish to 2030: Prospects for Fisheries and Aquaculture, World Bank Report No. 83177-GLB (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2013).
EUROPE & CENTRAL ASIA +5%
JAPAN -3%
OTHER EAST ASIA & PACIFIC -14%
AMERICA +13%
REST OF WORLD <1%
MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA <-1%
LATIN AMERICA & CARIBBEAN -12%
SOUTHEAST ASIA +13%
supported with the development of private hatch- eries, distribution and marketing channels for fish and fingerlings, training, beter information systems, support for product certification, and access to cap- ital. Tese types of concrete policy-driven develop- ments are behind the strong growth in production that is reflected in these projections. Figure 1 shows the projected growth in aquacul-
ture production in India, which dominates fisheries production in South Asia. Te biggest share of fish production in India is
likely to remain in the categories of carp produc- tion, which have relatively low feed intensities com- pared with other aquaculture species like pangasius (catfish) or tilapia. Despite their low intensity and relatively low value in trade, carp remain a highly important source of food for fish-eating populations in both South and East Asia, and are important for food security in those regions.
To understand what this picture means for nutri-
tion, it is helpful to translate the global increases in fish production and consumption from the Fish to 2030 projections into changes in the per capita pro- tein intake, tracking across major regional groupings of the world. Figure 2 shows that the greatest projected
percentage increases are in South Asia (espe- cially countries besides India, like Bangladesh) and China, with Southeast Asia increasing almost as much in percentage as North America. Africa and Latin America show a significant decrease in per capita intake of protein from fish, given that their per capita consumption of fish is projected to decrease over the 2010–2030 period by 1.0 percent and 0.6 percent, respectively, in terms of annual average growth rates of per capita consumption.13 Currently, about 80 percent of global fish pro- duction goes to meet human consumption needs,
THE RISE OF AQUACULTURE 65
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