cassava were estimated in some areas, though the data are still preliminary.16 Te disease outbreak has unleashed broader risks in West Africa. As experi- ence with HIV/AIDS has shown, poor health, mal- nutrition, and economic vulnerability can interact in a negative feedback loop. Malnutrition may make an illness more severe and exacerbate its socioeco- nomic impacts. Illness may also reduce people’s work capacity and productivity, imperiling the food secu- rity of entire households.17 Episodes of extreme weather and climate change
also struck in 2014. Large movements of refugees fleeing violence in the Central African Republic, Mali, and northern Nigeria were made worse by low rainfall in Benin, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, and Togo and by drought in Chad and Senegal. Lack of rain threatened the food and nutrition security and livelihoods of both hosting communities and refugees. Moreover, the co-occurrence of weather shocks and conflicts may not be coincidental: recent research by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) has found that abnormally high temperatures in Sudan and South Sudan, which were embroiled in civil war in 2014, strongly raise the risk of conflict.18 East Asia faced threats to food and nutrition
security from natural disasters, climate change, soil pollution, food safety issues, and zoonotic diseases (see Chapter 9).19 In the Philippines, Typhoon Hagupit struck in December, about a year aſter the devastating Typhoon Haiyan. Te damage was severe: 3.9 million people were affected, and more than 41,000 homes were destroyed. Tis time, how- ever, thorough preparation and evacuation of resi- dents helped to drastically reduce the loss of life. In contrast with Typhoon Haiyan, which killed about 7,000 people, Typhoon Hagupit resulted in only about two-dozen fatalities. Also, a tainted meat scan- dal in China provoked a food scare in fast-food out- lets across the country,20 and Taiwan experienced food safety scandals related to tainted cooking oil and tofu.21 Not all countries experienced lower food prices
in 2014, and in some countries, the prices of fruits and vegetables rose significantly. In China, as of November 2014, consumer prices for fresh fruits were 18.7 percent higher than one year before,
although vegetable prices were lower.22 In India, wholesale prices of fruits and vegetables were 23 per- cent higher in 2013–2014 than in 2012–2013.23 Several shocks highlighted the vulnerability
of Central America (see Chapter 9). In a region where 1.9 million people rely on coffee as their main source of income, a coffee rust epidemic in 2012 and 2013 led to estimated harvest losses of 20 per- cent. Demand for labor dropped by 16–32 percent,
Given the barrage of complex shocks in recent years, strengthening resilience was a major theme in the development community in 2014.
wages fell by 14–22 percent, and 160,000 people were faced with food insecurity. Because the disease destroyed so many coffee plants, heavy losses were also estimated for the 2013/2014 and 2014/2015 harvests. In addition, as a result of drought in 2014, maize losses were predicted to be 70 percent in both Guatemala and Honduras. Finally, the region experienced a surge in unaccompanied illegal child migrants to the United States. One estimate put the number at 90,000. Although many factors contrib- uted to this migration, preliminary analysis suggests that the children came from the most food-insecure areas of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras. In Central Asia, although undernourishment
has declined in most countries, relatively high lev- els of child stunting persist throughout the region (see Chapter 9). One of the region’s major trading partners—Russia—faced economic difficulties owing to falling oil prices and economic sanctions by Western countries. Low global food and energy prices generally helped counter the resulting price inflation in Central Asia, and the region also bene- fited from opportunities to fill the market void leſt by the Russian ban on Western agricultural products. At the same time, the negative developments in the region and in Russia may result in fewer remitances from abroad and reduced wages at home, possibly
FOOD POLICY IN 2014–2015 7
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