reduction in child malnutrition than did countries affected by major civil conflict at the beginning and the end of the observation period or countries that slipped into major civil conflict. For example, child stunting declined at an annual


average rate of more than 1 percentage point in Angola, Cambodia, and Tajikistan, all countries that suffered from major civil conflict at the beginning of the past two decades and that have also been rel- atively stable in recent years. In contrast, countries with an increase in conflict fatalities—such as the Central African Republic, Pakistan, and Syria—also experienced an increase in the prevalence of child stunting. Child stunting rates also increased in Mali and Somalia, which have been continuously affected by civil conflict throughout the past two decades. Although this simple analysis suggests that changes in the prevalence rate of child stunting are associated with changes in the intensity of civil conflict across countries, it does not allow for drawing conclusions about the impact of civil conflict on nutrition out- comes because factors not related to conflict may have caused the observed changes in the prevalence of child stunting.


BUILDING RESILIENCE TO SHOCKS IS EVEN MORE IMPORTANT IN CONFLICT- AFFECTED COUNTRIES THAN IN MORE STABLE COUNTRIES


Te root causes of conflict vary greatly with each case and are oſten the consequence of a combina- tion of political, institutional, economic, and social stresses. Te literature across academic disciplines points to a broad set of potential factors. Tese include ethnic tension, religious competition,3 real or perceived discrimination,4 poor governance and state capacity,5 competition for land and natural resources,6 population pressure and rapid urbaniza- tion,7 and economic factors such as poverty,8 youth unemployment,9 and food insecurity.10 But conflicts are also oſten related to shocks,


including natural disasters, epidemics, and food price crises. While such shocks may sometimes aggravate or even trigger civil conflict, others—such as food price hikes—are oſten a result of civil con- flict and can themselves spark conflicts. Examples of


drought-fuelled civil wars include Somalia11 as well as Sudan and South Sudan,12 and the ongoing Syr- ian civil war, which broke out in the wake of a major drought. Te current Ebola epidemic is spreading in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone—all countries


While shocks may sometimes aggravate or even trigger civil conflict, others—such as food price hikes—are often a result of civil conflict and can themselves spark conflicts.


that have experienced civil war in recent years. In Nigeria and other countries, the escalation of vio- lence has increased food prices and food insecurity. How can we break the links between food insecu-


rity and conflict? We argue that building resilience to economic, environmental, and health shocks is even more important in conflict-affected countries than it is in more stable countries, although a res- olution of an ongoing or latent civil conflict oſten requires tackling the underlying socioeconomic and political tensions.


Climate and Weather-Related Events Increase the Risk of Civil Conflict Tere is ample evidence suggesting that natural disasters—particularly droughts—contribute to aggravating existing civil conflicts in several ways.13 Such disasters can intensify social grievances by increasing the scarcity of available resources or by deepening inequalities among groups.14 Te mass disruption caused by a natural disaster can also become a source of economic opportunity for crim- inal activities, including looting. Governments can further exacerbate these grievances either by provid- ing inadequate or insufficient responses to disas- ters or by adopting discriminatory practices in the allocation of ex ante protective measures and ex post humanitarian aid.15 In extreme cases, disasters can provide a convenient pretext for advancing political or military objectives.16


CONFLICT AND FOOD INSECURITY 53


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