FIGURE 3 Food price hikes and intensity of civil conflict in Nigeria, 2000–2013 15 12 9 6 3 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
CONSECUTIVE MONTHS OF HIGH FOOD PRICES VIOLENT CIVIL CONFLICT EVENTS CONFLICT DEATHS
100 1,000
80
800
60
600
40
400
20
200
0
0
Source: Authors’ estimation based on food consumer price index (CPI) and conflict data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nation’s Statistical Division (FAOSTAT) and the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (accessed September 27, 2014).
Note: High food price months are months that have food price inflation rates higher than normal. The food price inflation anomaly is calculated over the period 2000–2013 as: A = dCPIy,m
−µdCPI σdCPI .
responding adequately to crises. However, as reforming institutions can be more challenging in conflict-affected countries, the World Development Report 2011 describes the following possible steps for successful reform: “First is the need to restore confidence in collective action before embarking on wider institutional transformation. Second is the priority of transforming institutions that provide citizen security, justice, and jobs. Tird is the role of regional and international action to contain exter- nal stresses.”30 Focusing on the last point—the containment of
“external stresses” and shocks more generally—we present below lessons from successful interventions and elsewhere in the literature to inform resil- ience-related policy- and decisionmaking. While the examples from these experiences do not neces- sarily show a direct impact of resilience-building
or impact-mitigating interventions in avoiding or reducing civil conflict, they are likely to be helpful to the affected (or potentially affected) communities, thereby contributing to a more stable society.
Policies and Programs Inclusive policies and interventions that build resil- ience to shocks, as well as well-targeted and effective ex post responses following shocks, have the poten- tial to defuse grievances by limiting the breadth and depth of their consequences.
Natural disasters: In both Mali and Syria, it appears that the government could have played a key role in mitigating the impacts of droughts either through more inclusive policies aimed at building resilience or by beter-targeted sustained humanitarian inter- ventions.31 In other countries, however, there have
CONFLICT AND FOOD INSECURITY 57
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