FIGURE 4 Projected aquaculture production in China by major species groups (‘000 tons) 18,568
2008 11,787 8,965 7,224 5,311 2,970 1,479 2,063 1,152 38 60 485 649 29 39 223 2,091 433 1,063 562 1,038 3 3 16 24 3,465 1,971
373 579
2030
14,056
Source: S. Msangi, M. Kobayashi, M. Batka, S. Vannuccini, M. M. Dey, and J. L. Anderson, Fish to 2030: Prospects for Fisheries and Aquaculture, World Bank Report No. 83177-GLB (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2013).
distribution of the aquaculture-based production of pangasius, Figure 3 demonstrates the rapid sectoral change that is emerging in Asia. Figure 3 also shows that countries that were not
producing any significant levels of pangasius in 1994 (such as Vietnam) were not only already sizable producers five years later but continued to grow to a point where they represented a third of the global market by 2009. Te strong influence of Asia can also be seen on
the demand side. In the scenarios presented in Fish to 2030, the authors explored the implications of continued (and even accelerated) demand for fish in Asia—the region that still represents the major- ity of both consumption and production of fisheries products. Te important role of China in the global balance of fish supply and demand was noted in Fish to 2020, an earlier study by the International Food
Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), and remains a focal point of interest in any analysis of the global fish economy.16 Figure 4 shows the production pro- jections for various fish species in China, using a baseline scenario under which China reaches a total aquaculture production level across all species of just more than 53 million tons by 2030. Tis level con- stitutes about 57 percent of the global aquaculture production in 2030, representing a nearly 46 percent increase in aquaculture production over the 2010– 2030 projection period. In the Fish to 2030 report, a scenario in which
there is an accelerated shiſt of consumer preferences toward higher-value fish was explored as a way of illustrating the potential impact of China’s evolving consumer economy on the overall global balance of fish demand and supply. Under this scenario, the per capita consumption of higher-value fish products
THE RISE OF AQUACULTURE 67
SHRIMP CRUSTACEANS
MOLLUSKS SALMON MAJOR DERMERSALS COBIA & SWORDISH EEL & STURGEON TILAPIA
PANGASIUS & OTHER CATFISH CARP
MULLET
OTHER FRESHWATER & DIADROMOUS
OTHER CARP OTHER PELAGICS OTHER MARINE
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