The inward journey should be predictable even with the predicted wind strengthening. As the tide is flooding, the wind and tide are together so the sea will be flat, and Tom will reef to reduce power. However, the wind and tide in the morning could make the sail out through the entrance to Namley Harbour a bit choppy. Therefore Tom plans to wear more clothing, stows the equipment well and can abort the trip if he feels continuing out through the entrance is too difficult. If conditions are too rough, Tom plans simply to turn around early and broad reach back to Chidham Marina, but could call into Western Point for his picnic and walk before the tide turns and he can have a short sail to Chidham Marina.
Though no overfalls (rough seas) are shown on the chart, it would be wise to approach the exit and entrance to the harbour with caution in case there are strong tidal eddies as mentioned in the almanac.
On the other hand, if the sea breeze does not materialise due to cloudy weather, Tom may find the breeze remains southerly and have an easy return trip with the tide behind him.