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news  review IMS expects LED market to stall in 2011


AFTER 60 percent growth in 2010, the GaN LED market is expected to pause in 2011, rising just 1 percent to $8.7 billion. That’s according to market analyst IMS Research, which attributes the slowdown to three factors. One of these is slower than expected growth in backlighting, which accounts for over 60 percent of GaN LED revenues. Backlighting is now expected to fall 3 percent in 2011 to $5.4 billion, after 80 percent growth in 2010, despite a 36 percent increase in units due to aggressive price reductions.


Another factor is LED supply growing more than two times faster than demand, as both existing players and many new entrants significantly expanded capacity in a disappointing year for demand putting pressure on prices.


Un-yielded 2-inch equivalent wafer capacity is expected to rise 67 percent in 2011, compared to a 29 percent increase in LED demand to 75 billion die causing the surplus that occurred in the second half of 2010 to widen in 2011.


Third, the growing over supply has led to ASP declines of up to 44 percent for 2011 depending on the segment and a blended


Raytheon GaN


modules excel RAYTHEON’S transmit/receive modules for the U.S. Navy’s Air and Missile Defence Radar (AMDR) program have passed a significant developmental testing milestone. The firm’s GaN modules have exceeded navy-specified requirements for extended, measured performance, demonstrating no degradation after more than 1,000 hours of testing.


Raytheon is developing a technology demonstrator for the system’s S-band radar and radar suite controller. During the radio frequency operating life testing, the modules demonstrated consistent power output across multiple channels.


“The threats that AMDR is designed to counter require leap-ahead technology that Raytheon is ready to deliver,” said Raytheon Integrated Defence Systems’ Kevin Peppe, vice president of Seapower


ASP decline of 21 percent. With costs falling slower than expected on under utilization, margins have worsened for most LED manufacturers.


According to IMS Research SVP Ross


Young, “All the LED backlighting segments are expected to fall in revenues in 2011 except for TVs which are now expected to rise 13 percent. However, the growth in TVs is not sufficient to offset the weakness in other segments.


In addition, the LED TV market is growing below expectations in 2011 on overall TV market weakness in developed countries which are most able to afford LED TVs and


Capability Systems. “We are seeing our gallium nitride modules exceed the program’s performance requirements, which ensures that the navy will get the capability and reliability they need for this sophisticated radar system at an affordable cost.”


AMDR provides capabilities for the navy including Arleigh Burke-class destroyers. It fills a critical gap in the joint forces’ integrated air and missile defence capability, enabling highly effective missile defences to be deployed in a flexible manner wherever needed. The radar suite consists of an S-band radar, X-band radar and radar suite controller.


The system is fully scalable, enabling the radar to be sized according to mission need and to be installed on ships of varying size as necessary to meet the Navy’s current and future mission requirements. The radar’s digital beam forming capability enables it to perform multiple simultaneous missions, a critical feature that makes the system affordable


6 www.compoundsemiconductor.net October 2011


price sensitivity in the developing countries which are enjoying the fastest growth. As a result, we have revised downward our LED penetration into TVs from 45 percent to 43 percent in 2011, up from 23 percent in 2010, and from 73 percent to 68 percent in 2012.”


The lighting market is the fastest growing application for packaged LEDs in 2011, rising 24 percent to $1.7 billion and reaching a 20 percent share of packaged LED revenues, up from 16 percent in 2010. Despite the rapid growth, LEDs are only expected to achieve a 1percent unit and 14 percent revenue share of the lighting market in 2011, leaving significant potential for future growth.


According to Young, “Looking forward, we expect faster revenue growth for packaged LEDs through 2015 with both backlighting and lighting growing in 2012 and 2013 and lighting offsetting declines in backlighting in 2014 and 2015 with all major panel markets saturated by LEDs from 2014.


However, by 2016, lighting growth will slow and won’t be able to offset the growing weakness in backlighting worsened by gains from AMOLEDs.”


and operationally effective for the Navy.


Raytheon’s skill and experience working with large-scale active phased-array radars spans the frequency spectrum from UHF to X/Ku-band and dates back to the Cobra Judy and Upgraded Early Warning Radar programs, continuing today with the advanced Dual Band Radar, AN/TPY-2 and Cobra Judy Replacement programs. The knowledge and experience gained from these programs will ensure that the AMDR S- and X-band radars operate in coordination across a variety of operational environments.


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