GEO-6 Regional Assessment for Latin America and the Caribbean
Figure 2.2.10: Domestic Food Price Index (FPI) for Latin America and the Caribbean.
3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4
2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3
2000 2002 Source: FAO 2015a
are expected in 2030 (because of global warming), with significant impacts on agriculture in all countries of this sub-region. As a result, suitable areas for crops that sustain agricultural exports and rural food security will change. Some administrative units (municipalities, counties and districts) will be more productive for certain crops, others may be less. The areas increasing productive capacity, which are generally at higher altitudes, are usually those competing for other land uses, such as upland forests that are a key element in regulating the hydrological cycle (UNF 2013).
The VIA assessment for the Andean region shows that, given the importance of water resources and the impact they may suffer under climate change conditions, strategic management of watersheds becomes a key factor, especially in high and medium altitudes that generate important water regulation services (CIAT 2014). Also, throughout the region, climate change will encourage potato-growing in high-altitude zones. Thus, it is critical to protect highland zones, which play important roles in hydrologic regulation. A significant challenge will be to prevent displacement of farmers by offering potato varieties that are resilient to the alteration of the phenological changes and exposure to pathogens due to an increase in average air temperatures (CIAT REGATTA 2014).
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Energy
“Although many sectors and economic activities are being affected by climatic changes the energy sector is particularly vulnerable to climatic changes. Hydropower generation is sensitive to the amount, timing and geographical patterns of precipitation” (Kabat and van Schaik 2003) (More…16). Brazil gets about 70 per cent of its electricity from hydroelectric power. In 2015 the country experienced one of the most debilitating droughts in its recorded history. Due to a decrease in rainfall, reservoir levels and lake flow, many hydroelectric facilities neared zero capacity, triggering power cuts in several major Brazilian cities (Poindexter 2015).
In a recent past, high oil prices coupled with increasing energy demand, new technologies, and reduced quantities of oil in some areas have led to the implementation of new extraction methods, such as hydraulic fracturing or fracking. This is a technique of extracting oil and gas from dense rock or sand using water, sand and chemicals at very high pressure. Around 20 000 cubic metres of water are required to build, drill and fracture a typical well (IWA 2014). To date, there is no comprehensive assessment or reliable information on the impacts of fracking on water resources in the region where wide-scale operations take place. Useful assessments might consider current competition for the use of water resources, the water-energy-food nexus and the variability of the hydrological cycle due to climate change. Figure 2.2.11 shows the areas where water resources might be under pressure in the future. In order of magnitude, Argentina, Mexico, Brazil, Venezuela, Colombia and Paraguay are the countries with more technically recoverable shale gas resources in the region (WRI 2015). Water stress conditions affect Mexico specially (Figure 2.2.11).
Livelihoods
As Figure 2.2.12 shows, there has been an increase in water and sanitation coverage in the region. However, 30 million people still lacked safe water supply in 2013 (World Bank 2015). One of the most notable impacts of water resource
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