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GEO-6 Regional Assessment for Latin America and the Caribbean


general, it has been established that provisioning services such as water supply and food, and regulating services, are the most important services from a local stakeholder perspective.


Challenges for reconciling human development and wetland conservation in LAC


Most wetlands in LAC have a pronounced seasonality, so any protection strategy must include their delimitation based on the areas flooded during the highest water level and, for the tropical region, it must include the highest water level of La Niña years. Hydrological and land cover data therefore needs to be monitored in order to increase ecosystem-based adaptation capacity to climate change.


Governmental development plans may include wetlands as strategic ecosystems. Legal enforcement of existing environmental laws is also needed at different spatial scales, taking into account that five of the major wetland complexes in the world are in South America: Amazon, Orinoco, Pantanal, La Plata and Cauca-Magdalena systems.


The Pantanal is considered as the sixth largest wetland in the world (Keddy et al. 2009). With about 138 000 -160 000 square kilometres in the upper Paraná basin in Bolivia, 867 Brazil and Paraguay, its biological richness is unique: about 4 700 species, 3 500 plants, 325 fish, 53 amphibians, 98 reptiles, 656 birds and 159 mammals (WWF 2013). The ecosystem services provided in Nhecolandia, in the Mato Grosso do Sul state (Brazil), is around US $15 500 million, of which two thirds corresponds to water provision and regulation of disturbances (Seidl and Moraes 2000). The Pantanal is considered one of the best-preserved ecosystems in South America, with 83 per cent of its original range of distribution, according to data from the Deforestation Satellite Monitoring Project of Brazilian Biomes (IBAMA 2012). Nevertheless, high parts of the basin of the Paraná have already lost 60 per cent of their natural vegetation, which could have important consequences for the ecosystem. The conservation of the Pantanal is partly due to periodic floods covering a vast portion of this ecosystem each year. Nevertheless, about 5 000 square kilometres of flooding forests (13 per cent of


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its original extent) were deforested in the last century (Seidl et al. 2001). Until 2004, 44 per cent of the area had signs of degradation by human activities and impacts on wildlife (Alho 2008). Other pressures on this ecosystem are water pollution, infrastructure development, settlement, non- regulated tourism and invasive species (Alho 2011).


The rate of growth of populations, and mega-industrial agriculture, mining and development projects, increase the vulnerability of wetlands. This implies the need to strengthen environmental-political


dialogue and build capacity for greater local empowerment in decision making.


32. Climate change related impacts on major ecosystem types in LAC


The tropical Andes. Tovar et al. (2013) defined the current potential distribution of seven biomes by the correlation between climatic and topographic variables and the potential current mapped distribution of montane land cover types. To predict ‘biome climate space responses’ the authors compared the position and extent of the potential biomes with projections based on an ensemble of eight global climate models for the periods 2010–2039 and 2040–2069.


Glaciers and periglacial areas, páramo, humid puna and evergreen montane forest appeared to have their lower elevation distribution boundary displaced uphill,


results for seasonally dry tropical montane forest, montane shrubland and xeric pre-puna indicated a downslope expansion. Today’s upper boundary appeared at higher elevation for almost all biomes by 2070.


while Although there


were losses projected for several biomes, the overall results suggested that between 75% and 83% of the current tropical Andes would remain stable in terms of climate space of today’s potential biomes, depending on the emission scenario and time horizon modelled


Observed and hypothesized ecosystem responses to changes in climatic factors in the tropical Andes were compiled for the main ecosystem types by (Anderson et al.


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