Supplementary Information
E. Values System Key uncertainties
How does the relationship between individuals and community perform?
Scenario 1: Economy prevails
Low: Predominance of individualism, but collectivity prevails in some vulnerable communities regarding environmental issues.
Scenario 2: Policy trade-offs
Low: Collective actions are not sufficiently grounded in environmental management.
Scenario 3: Towards a sustainability agenda
Medium: There is an increase in elements of collective interest such as perceived risk, trust in policy decision making, knowledge about integrating strategies of environment, social and economic developments that are positively related to support government policies to face different environmental challenges.
What are the protected areas policies?
Low: Protection of some natural areas important for economic development and particular interest (forests, genetic resources, beaches). Lack of financial resources limits the effectiveness of protection.
Medium: Protected natural areas remain a fundamental interest in all national and international conservation strategies. They allow protection of the world’s threatened species that are increasingly recognized as essential providers of ecosystem services and biological resources; key components in climate change mitigation strategies and also as a means for protecting human communities and places of great cultural and spiritual value.
48. Technical background supporting the models used for the GEO LAC scenarios analyses
The LAC scenarios chapter experts group, along with six other regional groups and a global team of expert modellers from WCMC met in Cambridge in July 2015 to start building the GEO LAC-4 scenarios with a multi-scale outlook.
High: Protected natural areas play a leading role in development policies, balancing the relationship between conservation and development. Policies are implemented to promote payments for environmental services, conservation of marine and freshwater protected areas, integration of indigenous people in decision-making and planning processes, and others.
Over the next six months the LAC team worked to further develop the scenarios. Meetings were also held in Panama and Nairobi in 2015 to decide how best to integrate the narrative and the quantitative results. The LAC regional team prepared narrative descriptions of each of the three scenarios by taking the drivers and assumptions of the GEO-3 global scenarios and GEO LAC 2003 scenarios as a starting point. While taking into consideration other regions’ and global influences, the group’s
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