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GEO-6 Regional Assessment for Latin America and the Caribbean


objective was to describe the three scenarios from a LAC outlook. In parallel, some advanced state-of-the-art models, described below, were used to develop the quantitative estimates of future environmental change and impacts on human well-being. To check the validity and consistency of the scenarios, the narrative team interacted with the modellers to ensure that the scenarios’ quantitative and qualitative components complemented and reinforced each other


The Models


International Futures: (IF) is a large-scale integrated global modelling system (Hughes and Hillebrand 2006). The IF model serves as a thinking tool to analyse long-term country-specific, regional, and global futures across multiple and interacting issue areas. For GEO 6 LAC, IF projected population trends and GDP per capita as well as providing additional information on education and military expenditure.


The IF model uses a standard and generally accepted assumption about national level income distribution; this is adjusted for each country to match historical data on persons living on less than 1 to 2 dollars per day.


EcoOcean: is a model developed by the University of British Columbia Fishery Centre to explore scenarios for the world’s oceans (Alder et al. 2007). It is based on the well-known Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) ecological modelling software. EwE uses two main components: Ecopath - a static, mass- balanced snapshot of marine ecosystems, and Ecosim - a time dynamic simulation module for policy exploration based on an Ecopath model. The EcoOcean model was constructed using 43 functional groups common to the world’s oceans including FAO’s 19 marine statistical areas. The groups were selected with special consideration for exploited fish species but are intended to include all major groups in the oceans. The fish groups are based on size categories and feeding and habitat characteristics. Fishing is the most important driver for the ecosystem model simulations. The five major fishing fleet categories are: demersal, distant water fleet, baitfish tuna (pursed seine), tuna long-line and small pelagic. This classification is used to distinguish different fishing methods


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based on historical information. For GEO 6 LAC, EcoOcean provided estimates of the Depletion Index for fisheries.


49. Watersheds of the Andean Region


The Watersheds of the Andes region cover large portions of Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia, as well as smaller areas of Venezuela, Panama and Brazil. Spanning a huge diversity of ecosystems, from the high-altitude grasslands and cloud forests of the Andes to the tropical forests of the Amazon, the region has a unique geological history and important climate variability, which is largely responsible for the exceptional biodiversity and extremely high endemism. It is also of great importance for the ecosystem services it provides, in particular the water-related services.


Development in the region has been rapid. Commodity- driven land-cover change strongly affects water supply, impacting on the livelihoods of millions of people downstream who depend on water from the Andes. The region also supports a very large number of people beyond the region, with estimates of 100 million people in total benefiting from services provided by the high Andean wetlands. The region has seen growth in international investment, and resulting growth in national economies. Natural resources, in particular minerals and hydrocarbons, are largely behind this economic growth, comprising the top export commodities for all countries except Panama.


The overcoming obstacles scenario developed by UNEP- WCMC (2015), which refers to three countries in the Andean region: Colombia, Ecuador and Peru for the period up to 2050, presents a set of change factors defined and scored in terms of relevance and uncertainty, such as the state’s level of political power, markets, consumption patterns and economic development. This outlook reflects many of the preconditions of the trajectory described in GEO’s policy trade-off outlook. It runs as follows: the Andean region is in conflict with trends towards decentralization, regulation and sustainability and hence political and economic conflicts. However, by 2050, the Andean Region has become part


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