GEO-6 Regional Assessment for Latin America and the Caribbean
vascular problems. High temperatures encourage the spread of infectious diseases, including dengue.
4.3.2 Key uncertainties
The three scenarios have been built around main drivers and megatrends summarised above, and the evolution of key uncertainties. The basic dimensions of uncertainties in GEO-4 (UNEP 2007) are used as a methodological basis in accordance with the situation in LAC. This analysis includes five basic dimensions:
A. Institutional and socio-political framework; B. Population trends; C. Economy and markets; D. Science and technology; and E. Value systems.
Key uncertainties under these dimensions were assumed (More…47).
4.4 Scenarios for Latin America and the Caribbean
Guided by the theme of GEO-6 ‘Healthy Planet, Healthy People’, the scenarios for LAC that are presented in this section focus on a few key indicators that continue to be at the center of the environment-development discourse in the region. Taking into account the impacts that various socio-economic drivers are having on the natural wealth of LAC countries (economic growth, population growth, urbanization and patterns of production and consumption), as presented in Chapter 1, the scenarios consider the future based
implications of selected development pathways on how social, economic and environmental
considerations are prioritized. The intention is to provide an opportunity to examine options for improving the health of the natural environment in LAC, while at the same time ensuring that human well-being is secured into the future. The supplementary information provides the technical
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background of the modelling carried out to support the analyses presented in this section (More…48).
4.4.1 Economy prevails
Looking back from 2050, the neo-liberal paradigm and unregulated markets seem to have been the main drivers in this outlook. Over the period 2015 to 2050, the economic structure of the region showed little change, continuing to give priority to primary or natural resource-intensive industries, mainly in South America; screw-driver-assembly manufacturing activities, especially in Mexico and Mesoamerica; and sand-and-sea all-inclusive type resorts in the Caribbean (UNECLAC 2014; De la Torre et al. 2013). By 2025, LAC still had the same percentage of world GDP as in 2015 (about 7 per cent) (BID 2014). The regional GDP per person at purchasing power parity increased from USD 13 790 in 2010 to more than USD 16 700 in 2025, and USD 26 980 in 2050 – a 96 per cent increase over the period 2010- 2050 (Figure 4.4.1). As was expected, the increase in GDP per person in the other outlooks tends to increase at a lower rate.
Remittance flows continued to increase, eventually surpassing official development assistance (ODA) and foreign direct investment (FDI), mainly in Mesoamerica and some Caribbean countries (UNECLAC 2015b). However, regional foreign debt remained high, with Brazil, Mexico and Argentina accounting for about two-thirds of the total. Foreign technology penetration increased and LAC reduced their capacity for research and innovation. Intellectual property associated with genetic resources and traditional knowledge was included in the market economy under conditions that favoured multinationals (Rios and Mora 2014). Social control had been reinforced, and an increasing social tension, also related to the lack of respect of basic human rights that had been observed in the region. The commercialization of social services (World Bank 2005) increased steadily. Inequity and extreme poverty continued even though some were misled by statistics which showed that the percentage of the population living on an income of
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