GEO-6 Regional Assessment for Latin America and the Caribbean
The Gini indexes (a measure of income inequality) estimates elaborated by the World Bank (2015) for some LAC countries, as shown in Table 1.3.3, highlight that inequality is lowest in the Caribbean at an average of 43.0 and highest in Mesoamerican at 48.5.1
1.3.3 Climate change as a key driver
The importance of climate change as a driver is that its causes and consequences are global. However, climate change also transfers risk, as many of the territories most affected are those that have contributed least to GHG emissions (UNISDR 2015).
Table 1.3.3: Gini index for some Latin America and the Caribbean Countries (World Bank estimate).
Country
Argentina Bolivia Brazil Chile
Colombia Costa Rica
Dominican Republic Ecuador
Guatemala Honduras Haiti
Mexico Panama Peru
Paraguay El Salvador Uruguay
Source: World Bank 2015 1 24 Data for Brazil in 2014 is from IBGE 2015. 2011
43.6 46.3 53.1 50.8 54.2 48.6 47.4 46.2 52.4 57.4
51.8 45.5 52.6 42.4 43.4
2012
42.5 46.7 52.7
53.5 48.6 45.7 46.6
57.4 60.8 48.1 51.9 45.1 48.2 41.8 41.3
2013
42.3 48.1 52.9 50.5 53.5 49.2 47.1 47.3
53.7
51.7 44.7 48.3 43.5 41.9
2014 49.71
Through changing air and seas temperatures, precipitation regimes and sea levels, among other factors, global climate change feeds back into changes in hazards and magnifies disaster risks. Climate change is already altering the frequency and intensity of many weather-related hazards (IPCC 2014), as well as steadily increasing the vulnerability and eroding the resilience of exposed populations that depend on arable land, access to water, and stable mean temperatures and rainfall (UNDP et al. 2013).
In most countries, climate change increases the Annual Average Loss (AAL2
). For the Caribbean Basin as a whole,
climate change contributes an additional USD 1 400 million to the expected AAL associated with wind damage alone, excluding changes in AAL associated with storm surge due to sea level rise (CIMNE and INGENIAR 2014). Given that Caribbean countries are collectively responsible for only a small proportion of global GHG emissions, the additional AAL of USD 1 400 million raises important questions regarding accountability for risk generation and who should pay for these additional losses.
Within the region, however, the effects of climate change are not evenly distributed. For example Trinidad and Tobago has a fivefold increase in the AAL due to climate change. In contrast, Mexico would actually see a reduction in AALs (UNISDR 2015).
1.3.4 Natural hazards
The LAC region is highly exposed to various types of natural hazards (UNECLAC 2014b). The main hazards are weather- related events, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, and storms and hurricanes. Hydro-meteorological events associated with rain patterns or extreme events like the El Niño
Southern Oscillation (ENSO), generate either
2 The Annual Average Loss is the average expected financial/budgetary loss annualized over a long time frame considering the range of loss scenarios related to different return periods. It represents the amount that countries would have to set aside each year to cover the cost of future disasters in the absence of insurance or other disaster risk financing mechanisms (UNISDR 2013 and 2015).
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