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GEO-6 Regional Assessment for Latin America and the Caribbean


Brazilian researchers from INPE (National Institute for Space Research) and IPEA (Institute for Applied Economic Analysis) in cooperation with IIASA (International Institute for Applied System Analysis) and UNEP-WCMC (World Conservation Monitoring Centre). The model simulations project scenarios proposed by Brazil’s MMA (Ministry for the Environment).


GLOBIOM-Brazil model projections show that full application of Brazil’s Forest Code can achieve a compromise between an environmental protection and agricultural production result. The Forest Code allows zero net deforestation in Amazonia, where agricultural production will be dominated by cattle raising. Major cropland expansion occurs in the Cerrado and in Mata Atlântica, using both natural lands and spare land from pasture intensification. Such pressures on natural vegetation suggest that, to avoid significant biodiversity losses in Caatinga and the Cerrado, Brazil needs extra preservation measures in these biomes.


Brazil could become a net carbon sink in the next decades.


Forest regrowth due to implementation of Forest Code rules offsets emissions resulting from legal deforestation in the 2020-2030 decade, reducing the net emissions by 90% compared to 2005. In the 2030-2040 decade, Brazil reaches zero emissions from land use change in the Forest Code scenarios.


Implementing the Forest Code is of key importance to Brazil. To do so, the country faces major challenges. Building a high quality rural environmental cadastre is key to monitoring forest restoration. Brazil needs to set up a monitoring system for the whole country as powerful as the one in place for Amazonia. Legal reserve amnesty should be limited to small farmers, avoiding illicit break-up of large farms. The market for environmental quotas needs to be regulated to avoid leakages and enhance forest conservation. Strong action to avoid illegal deforestation in Amazonia must continue to be enforced. The right incentives for efficient production must be in place, including the Low Carbon Agriculture plan. If Brazil overcomes these challenges, there will be multiple


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Projected total forest in Brazil (mature + regrowth) for 2030 in the scenario where the Forest Code is fully enforced. Each grid cell has 2500 square kilometres


Source: www.redd-pac.org


benefits for its citizens, including biodiversity protection, emissions mitigation, and positive institution building.


The main reference for the GLOBIOM-Brazil model is the report “Modelling Land Use Change in Brazil: 2000-2050”, available at the website: http://www.redd-pac.org.


Besides GLOBIOM-Brazil, other models have investigated the trade-offs between production and protection of land use in Brazil, indicating that the country can expand its agricultural area and productivity without increasing deforestation and complying with the new forest code (Sparovek et al. 2012; Soares-Filho et al. 2014; Strassburg et al. 2014)


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