Chapter 4: Latin America and the Caribbean in 2015


T


he DPSIR situation analysis presented in previous chapters forms the basis of the environmental outlooks for Latin America and the Caribbean explored


in this chapter. The chapter takes into consideration the sustainability pathways as defined by the recent developments at the international level in late 2015, namely the adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals and the COP 21 Paris Agreement. It also considers the current driving forces and regional megatrends, in an attempt to model and describe some of the potential outcomes and trajectories of change under different scenarios. Finally, the chapter offers some insights in the environmental outlooks for the region, and some of the societal choices needed to move towards a sustainable future.


4.1 Main Messages •


Latin America and the Caribbean is home to a significant portion of the planet’s natural wealth. The future of the region’s economies, as well as the ability of LAC countries to fight poverty and reverse inequality, depends heavily on the region’s natural capital, and the ability of governments to effectively manage it.


• There are a number of critical driving forces that will shape the future of the region. Climate change is a major concern for LAC countries because of the anticipated impacts on access to water, food production, health, land use, and physical and natural capital. Unsustainable patterns of production and consumption are also placing increasing pressures on resources such as land, water and biodiversity. Demographic changes that drive urbanization and other forms of human settlements are also important driving forces that place growing demands on basic services such as health, water, energy, housing, natural ecosystems and the management of chemicals and waste. Lack of attention to these drivers can have far reaching environmental and socio- economic consequences.


•


In this chapter, three possible pathways or scenarios for LAC are presented with a 35 year outlook from 2015:- i) ‘Economy prevails’; ii) ‘Policy trade-offs’, and; iii) ‘Towards a sustainability agenda’. These scenarios have


 Credit: Shutterstock/ Tati Nova photo Mexico 139


been developed with strong consideration of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development; and they focus on the environmental drivers of greatest concern.


• The scenarios highlight that the outlook for LAC will not be optimal if economic considerations are always prioritised over environmental protection. There is a need to decouple economic growth from resources consumption, and adapt to changes in lifestyle that reflect greater sustainability in the way that natural capital is produced and consumed.


• The scenarios also emphasize that, although LAC is likely to continue to be the region with lowest carbon content of any regional energy mix through 2050, current patterns of economic development will result in increased carbon emissions in the region. There is therefore a need for countries to seek ways to better green their economies, and reduce their dependence on fossil fuels.


• The region also has to ensure that it can adapt to future environmental changes by building the resilience of its ecosystems so that their services are protected. Proper investment in ecological infrastructure will likely play an important role in lowering the vulnerability of the region’s populations to future environmental and socio- economic shocks.


• Meaningful change in the social and economic landscape of the region towards greater sustainability will require stronger governance and enforcement of policies able to take into account future risks and uncertainties, as well as an increase in social behaviours and actions that seek to protect and value natural capital.


4.2 Setting the Scene


People, Planet, Peace, Prosperity and Partnerships (i.e. the 5 P’s) are the central issues of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development around which the opportunities to achieve a life of dignity for all, including future generations, in harmony with nature are addressed. The recognition of the need to achieve greater and inclusive prosperity, within the Earth’s life support system, puts environmental issues in a central place as never before.


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