GEO-6 Regional Assessment for Latin America and the Caribbean


and more than 100 million people in the region live in areas susceptible to air pollution. Moreover, the impacts of cities are not restricted to the urban areas. According to the World Water Quality Assessment (UNEP 2016), it is estimated that 25 million rural people are in contact with polluted surface waters originating from urban areas. This increases health risks and mortality rates in rural areas.


LAC currently accounts for only 5 per cent of global GHG emissions; however the region’s contribution to global aggregates is growing, particularly because of demands from the transport and industry sectors. According to World Bank (2015), carbon dioxide emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and the manufacture of cement in LAC increased in absolute terms (+14.18 per cent) over the period 2006 to 2011, although their levels as a proportion of GDP have declined. Reducing emissions of greenhouse gases with long residence time in the atmosphere is considered an important challenge in LAC; and contaminants such as black carbon are now a priority because of their radiative forcing action on the climate system.


While climate mitigation must be a key component of strategies to combat climate change in LAC, the urgency of strengthening adaptation measures to increase resilience and lower the region’s vulnerability cannot be ignored. The scenarios analysis indicates that LAC is likely to continue to be the region with lowest carbon content of any regional energy mix through to 2050. However, current data are showing that the region’s systems are already under pressure from changes in global climate, and these trends are expected to worsen. Andean glaciers, which provide vital water resources for millions of people, are shrinking; extreme stream flow is affecting communities; and an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events are affecting economies. In the Caribbean Basin, climate change contributes an additional USD 1.4 billion to Average Annual Loss based on wind damage alone. In addition, climate change exacerbates many other driving forces and therefore amplifies environmental and related socio-economic impacts.


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As a result of the range and growing intensity of many driving forces, important ecosystems and ecological processes in the region continue to be affected. Data indicate that although the rate of conversion of natural systems has begun to slow, the overall rate of loss of ecosystems remains high. Forests have shown an overall decrease of 9.5 per cent across the region since 1990, however this regional aggregate masks a noteworthy area of success - in the Caribbean, there has been an increase in the extent of forested area by 43 per cent over the 1990 baseline. Average coral cover is estimated to have declined in the Caribbean from 34.8 per cent to 16.3 per cent between 1970 and 2011. Species continue to be lost across LAC, and what is of particular concern is that where losses are occurring, the rate at which they are happening is, more often than not, increasing. Human-induced water erosion has been reported to affect as many as 2.23 million square kilometres of land in LAC, and river networks transport these sediments and other land-based sources of pollution to the oceans, impacting coastal ecosystems. The World’s Water Quality Assessment (2016) states that about one-quarter of all river stretches in LAC are in the severe pollution class; and the number of rural people coming into contact with polluted surface waters is estimated to be as high as 25 million.


The future of the region’s economies, as well as the ability of LAC countries to fight poverty and reverse inequality, depends heavily on the region’s natural capital and the capacity of governments to effectively manage it. Although there are noteworthy successes in the region’s efforts to manage its natural asset base (e.g. between 1990 and 2014 the total terrestrial area under protection in the region increased from 8.8 per cent to 23.4 per cent); and LAC has made some important progress in addressing a number of high-priority socio-economic concerns (e.g. the percentage of people living below the poverty line decreased from 31 per cent in 2010 to 26 per cent in 2014; during the past 15 years, the percentage of people living in slums decreased from 29 to 20 per cent; and the number of people with improved access to water and sanitation has increased), the data in this report indicate that progress is likely taking place at the expense of the natural environment in many cases. Whether driven by


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