GEO-6 Assessment for Latin America and the Caribbean

Billion Metric Tons of Carbon

Chapter 4: Latin America and the Caribbean in 2015

Figure 4.4.7: Carbon dioxide emissions in LAC in the three scenarios (1990-2014).

1.2 1.4 1.6

1.0 0.8

0.4 0.6

0.2 0.0

1990 2000 2010 Historic data Economy prevails Source: IFM 2015

including food market speculation and threats to food security. By 2040 the suitability of the agricultural lands in LAC had substantially changed compared to 2014 (Figure 4.4.8).

Challenges

The ‘Economy prevails’ outlook tends to maximise economic growth at the expense of social and environmental objectives. This approach is reactive in terms of policy responses.

Consequently, economic growth instability

increases, as does vulnerability to unforeseen events. Policy options in this outlook emphasize privatization of public services and attempts to internalize environmental and social externalities into the costs of production through market tools.

2020 2030 2040 2050 Policy trade-off

Towards a sustainability agenda

2060

4.4.2 Policy trade-offs

In this scenario, new policies and regulations are introduced to partially mitigate the adverse impacts of more than two decades of neo-liberal practices. Regional economic structure gradually shifts towards more value-added products and service activities. Until 2025 not much difference in GDP per person is experienced compared to the ‘Economy prevails’ outlook, but by 2050 GDP per person reaches USD 25 980 (Figure 4.4.1), a small decrease.

In this scenario, population growth slows, urbanization stabilizes and emigration pressures reduce. The LAC population reaches around 774.4 million, a value close to that expected in the ‘Economy prevails’ scenario. Policies are introduced to deal with the progressive aging of the population. Urbanization tends to be less chaotic. Institutional structures and policies improve, and democracy is promoted. Advances in environmental protection are achieved, especially in reducing urban pollution, although problems related to the management of natural resources persist.

Better income distribution policies are implemented and social expenditures increase in most of the region. This trend allows governments to partially achieve the SDGs in crucial areas such as education, health and poverty eradication. For example, female secondary education increases steadily to over 80 per cent (Alves et al. 2013). Following some of the main ideas proposed by Lutz et al. (2008), in many LAC countries, the previously uneducated half of the adult population now has primary education and a possible new SDG effort adds widespread secondary education. Additional investment in secondary education provides a huge boost to economic growth. Regional integration is enhanced through several sub-regional agreements and organizations. Regional initiatives for energy cooperation, including on the promotion of renewable sources, are encouraged. As a

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