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EMISSIONS GAP REPORT 2018 – BRIDGING THE GAP: THE ROLE OF NON-STATE AND SUBNATIONAL ACTORS
Lead organization and secretariat
The existence of a secretariat and a lead organization is likely to influence ICI performance (Pattberg and Widerberg, 2016). Initiatives with a permanent secretariat report both higher-than-average potential emission reduction contributions in 2020 and 2030, and higher indirect impacts, complementary goals and co-benefits, such as diffusion of information, political effects, technology development, reduced air pollution, improved health, and strengthened energy security and economic development (Graichen et al., 2017). Similarly, the active involvement of NGOs, as either leaders or ICI members, has been shown to be associated with higher potential emission reductions and potentially larger co-benefits (Graichen et al., 2017).
Almost all (217) of the ICIs included in CIP state that they have a secretariat, in many cases hosted by one of the larger organizations participating in the ICI, but it is not possible to assess how many of these secretariats are permanent. In fact, some studies suggest that most ICIs lack a permanent secretariat (Graichen et al., 2017; Chan, 2018).
Functions
ICIs primarily provide information and knowledge-related services to their participants (figure 5.3). Although the distribution of functions has remained relatively stable over time, a few new functions have recently emerged, including financing and fund-raising. In a recent survey of 75 ICIs, funding was found to be the most common challenge, reported by approximately 30 percent of respondents (UNFCCC, 2017). Meanwhile, financial and organizational capacity tends to be associated with high- performing ICIs (Biermann et al., 2007; Chan and Pauw, 2014; Chan et al., 2015; Galvanizing the Groundswell of Climate Actions, 2015; Widerberg and Pattberg 2015). The recent growth in ICIs’ fund-raising and financing activities is therefore promising and may suggest increased efforts to address the challenges reported.
5.4 The potential contribution of non-state and subnational actors to enhancing ambition and bridging the 2030 emissions gap
At the international level, there is particular interest in how much NSAs could contribute to global GHG emission reductions by 2030 and the extent to which these potential contributions are already included in national current policy and NDC estimates. Section 5.4.1 assesses the most recent studies on these issues, while section 5.4.2 addresses the questions related to tracking the progress and results of NSA action. NSAs also play a number of critical roles that do not easily lend themselves to quantification, but may nevertheless be important to enhancing ambition and bridging the 2030 emissions gap. Section 5.4.3 provides a brief overview of such roles.
5.4.1 Estimates of potential emission reductions in 2030 of non-state and subnational actors
The 2016 Emissions Gap Report (UNEP 2016) published an overview of quantitative analysis of the potential contribution of NSA actions to global emissions mitigation in 2030, illustrating a wide range of results. Since these estimates were published, the number of studies that quantify NSAs’ potential contribution to global climate action has grown, with more networks and researchers conducting analysis of aggregate impact of member groups on global emissions. These studies can be divided into three categories:
1. Individual commitments: estimate the aggregate impact on emissions from pledges by individual cities, regions or business actors that commit to fully implement the targets they set themselves.
2. Single initiatives: estimate the potential impact on emissions from a single cooperative initiative goal, assuming this is implemented by all actors under the initiative. Often, individual actors subscribe to a collective cooperative initiative (which can be an ICI) that together sets a goal for the initiative. The single initiative studies assess the emission reductions of the initiative’s goals, rather than pledges that individual actors take themselves. The estimated emission reductions subsequently involve some scaling up of the potential.
3. Scaled-up potential of multiple initiatives: estimate the potential emission reductions from several initiatives that would occur if the initiatives reached a transformative impact at the sector- or economy- wide level. These studies apply a range of significant assumptions on how actions are expanded; from assuming that all members within a network will adopt an ICI’s ambitious emission reduction goal, to that membership will grow to a certain number of actors and cover a certain number of additional sectors. These studies therefore estimate greater reduction potential at the sector- or economy-wide level.
Table 5.2 provides an overview of available studies, organized according to these three categories. The table shows the wide range of potential emission reductions estimated in various studies – from companies based in the United States of America contributing 0.026 GtCO2
e
potential of 21 cross-sector, multi- actor ICIs (Data-Driven Yale, NewClimate Institute and PBL, 2018).
in 2025 (America’s Pledge 2018) to as much as 15-23 GtCO2
Due to the variable baseline methodologies and assumptions adopted by each study, as well as different scopes in terms of actors and emissions covered, the wide range of overall impact assessment is unsurprising. Some studies focus on NSA impact in a single country, such as the United States of America (Roelfsema, 2017),
e in 2030 based on an evaluation of the scaled-up
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