15
lower end based on European Commission’s Joint Research Center and the upper end based on King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) (2014), see Kuramochi et al. (2017a)). Starting in January 2018, Saudi Arabia implemented an economy-wide 5 percent VAT on fossil fuels (Nereim, 2017). However, the government announced a delay in fossil fuel price reforms in December 2017 by slowing down the pace of energy subsidy cuts (Toumi, 2017).
In its Cancun pledge, South Africa aims to reduce its GHG emissions by 34 percent below business as usual in 2020 and in its NDC commits to achieving a “peak, plateau and decline” of greenhouse emissions, peaking between 2020 and 2025 and plateauing at 398–614 MtCO2
The United States of America set a 2020 target to reduce GHG emissions by 17 percent below 2005 levels in 2020 (UNFCCC, 2014) and committed to reducing emissions by 26-28 percent below 2005 levels by 2025 in its NDC (UNFCCC, 2016). However, under President Donald Trump, the USA has communicated its intent to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, unless it can identify suitable terms for reengagement, and to cease implementation of its NDC (The Representative of the United States of America to the United Nations, 2017). In October 2017, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposed to repeal the Clean Power Plan (US EPA,
e/year between 2025 and 2030. Recently
published studies (Kitous et al., 2017; Kuramochi et al., 2017a; CAT, 2018m) indicate that under current policies, South Africa may just meet the upper end of its Cancun pledge range, but will miss its NDC target by emitting 650–770 MtCO2
e/year in 2030. In February 2018, the
proposed Carbon Tax Bill entered the parliamentary process after 2 years of consultations. After further parliamentary hearings and revisions, the final draft was expected to be completed by mid-2018 (EY, 2017; Republic of South Africa, 2017; Ensor, 2018), though it is yet to be released. The Department of Energy released its update of the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) (Department of Energy, 2018) on future energy supply planning in August 2018 for public comments until November 2018. The plan’s update proposes to decommission 12 GW of old coal power plants by 2030, while increasing gas, wind and solar generation capacity. First estimates suggest that the proposed update, if implemented, would allow South Africa to meet the upper range of its NDC target by 2030 (CAT, 2018m).
2030 (excluding LULUCF). The lower estimate is based on both planned and current policies. According to an independent analysis based on government projections, current policies are insufficient to meet Turkey’s INDC and the country has an ongoing investment in expanding coal power production (CAT, 2017b).
Turkey submitted its INDC on 30 September 2015, with a target to reduce GHG emissions up to 21 percent below business as usual in 2030 (Republic of Turkey Ministry of Environment and Urbanization, 2016). With currently implemented policies, Turkey is expected to achieve GHG emission levels of 959–1,075 MtCO2
e/year in
2017), which would have required states to meet CO2 emission standards for electricity generation. In April 2018, EPA announced that it would revise GHG emission standards for cars and light trucks (US EPA, 2018). 17 states led by California have filed a lawsuit to prevent these rollbacks (State of California, 2018). In January 2018, the USA increased tariffs on imported solar cells and modules by 30 percent (The Executive Office of the President 2018).
Under currently implemented policies, the USA is unlikely to meet its NDC target for 2025 and it is uncertain whether it will meet its 2020 target (Kuramochi et al., 2017b; CAT, 2018o; Larsen et al., 2018), though action by non-state and subnational actors in the country could contribute significantly to reducing future emissions (Kuramochi et al., 2017c). A range of studies find that given policy rollbacks, GHG emissions in 2025 will be between 0.8–1.9 GtCO2
e/year higher than had
the NDC been achieved (Fransen and Levin, 2017). However, despite federal efforts to weaken emission standards and other policies, recent analysis projects that GHG emissions in 2030 will be 3–8 percent lower than projections made in 2017 (Kitous et al., 2017; Kuramochi et al., 2017a; PBL, 2017; CAT, 2018o), partially due to a higher projected share of gas and renewables in electricity generation (U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2018). There will be a time lag between policy rollbacks and their impact on emission levels.
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