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• The assessment of country action for this Emissions Gap Report concludes that while most G20 countries are on track to meet their Cancun pledges for 2020, the majority are not yet on a path that will lead them to fulfilling their NDCs for 2030.
• Concerns about the current level of both ambition and action are thus amplified compared to previous Emissions Gap Reports. According to the current policy and NDC scenarios, global emissions are not estimated to peak by 2030, let alone by 2020. The current NDCs are estimated to lower global emissions in 2030 by up to 6 GtCO2
e
compared to a continuation of current policies. As the emissions gap assessment shows, this original level of ambition needs to be roughly tripled for the 2°C scenario and increased around fivefold for the 1.5°C scenario.
• Action by non-state and subnational actors (NSAs), including regional and local governments and businesses, is key to implementing the NDCs. The strong engagement by NSAs demonstrated at the recent Global Climate Action Summit is promising and can help governments deliver on their NDCs, but the impact of current individual NSA pledges on reducing the gap is extremely limited. Chapter 5 of this Emissions Gap Report was pre-released at the Summit, and documents that if international cooperative initiatives succeed in increasing their membership and ambition, substantially greater potential can be realized. The chapter emphasizes that enhanced monitoring and reporting of actions and resulting emissions reductions will be essential for the credibility of NSA action.
• Countries therefore need to move rapidly on the implementation of their current NDCs; at the same time, more ambitious NDCs are necessary by 2020 to meet the jointly agreed goals. This report summarizes the different approaches countries can take to build enhanced ambition and enhance the scale, scope and effectiveness of their domestic policy.
• The policies and measures chapters in this year’s report address two key aspects for the longer- term transition to a zero-emission economy and society. Fiscal policies provide a key opportunity for reducing future emissions, and there are options to design them in such a way that they deliver the desired results without creating economic and social problems. Several countries have demonstrated that it is possible to overcome social resistance, but few have gone far enough to have the necessary emissions reduction impact. Innovation policy and market creation also offer significant mitigation potential and governments should play a key role in ensuring the development and market introduction of new and emerging low-carbon technologies and practices.
The key messages from the 2018 Emissions Gap Report send strong signals to national governments and to the political part of the Talanoa Dialogue at the 24th
session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 24). Along with the
recent IPCC Special Report, these messages provide the scientific underpinning for the UN 2019 Climate Summit, which will convene on the theme of ‘A Race We Can Win. A Race We Must Win’. By way of the summit, the United Nations Secretary-General will seek to challenge States, regions, cities, companies, investors and citizens to step up action in six key areas: energy transition, climate finance and carbon pricing, industry transition, nature- based solutions, cities and local action, and resilience.
2. Global greenhouse gas emissions show no signs of peaking. Global CO2
e in 2017, emissions from energy and
In contrast, global GHG emissions in 2030 need to be approximately 25 percent and 55 percent lower than in 2017 to put the world on a least-cost pathway to limiting global warming to 2°C and 1.5°C respectively.
industry increased in 2017, following a three-year period of stabilization. Total annual greenhouse gases emissions, including from land-use change, reached a record high of 53.5 GtCO2 an increase of 0.7 GtCO2
e compared with 2016.
In 2017 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions - excluding emissions from land-use change - reached a record 49.2 GtCO2
, bringing the total to 53.5 e. e. This is an increase of 1.1 percent on the
previous year. Emissions from land-use change, which vary from year to year because of weather conditions, added another 4.2 GtCO2 GtCO2
Despite modest growth in the world economy, CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion, cement
from fossil fuels, industry and cement for 2017 suggest an increase of 1.2 percent (figure ES.1). The main drivers of the increase are higher gross domestic product (GDP) growth (about 3.7 percent) and slower declines in energy, and especially carbon, intensity, compared with the 2014–2016 period. The 2017 increase leaves considerable uncertainty as to whether the 2014–2016 slowdown was driven primarily by short-term economic factors.
production and other industrial processes remained relatively stable from 2014 to 2016. This brought optimism to climate policy discussions, indicating that global GHG emissions might show signs of peaking. However, preliminary estimates of global CO2
Since CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, industry and emissions had the largest influence on GHG
emissions from 2014 to 2017. Land-use change emissions have remained relatively flat, despite large annual variations driven by weather patterns and uncertainty in input data.
cement dominate total GHG emissions, the changes in CO2
Global peaking of emissions by 2020 is crucial for achieving the temperature targets of the Paris Agreement, but the scale and pace of current mitigation action remains insufficient. Following on from the Talanoa Dialogue, which has raised confidence in implementation efforts and has shown that increased ambition is possible, national governments have the opportunity to strengthen their current policies and their NDCs by 2020.
Global peaking of GHG emissions is determined by the aggregate emissions from all countries. While there has been steady progress in the number of countries that
emissions
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