5
Figure 2.2: Average annual growth rates of key drivers of global CO2 greenhouse gas emissions (right of dotted line).
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
2017 2004 - 2014
2014 - 2016
emissions (left of dotted line) and components of
Note: Emissions from LUC are not included due to large inter-annual variability.
in economic output (such as recessions, Peters et al., 2011). In 2017, the total GHG emissions, excluding emissions from land-use change (LUC),10
reached a increase of 0.7 GtCO2
record 49.2 GtCO2e.11 GtCO2
, bringing the total to 53.5 GtCO2
Including LUC adds another 4.2 e, which is an
e (1.3 percent) compared with
2016. All GHGs have shown strong growth in the last decades (figure 2.2), except for emissions from LUC, which have remained relatively steady.
From 2014 to 2016 there was a distinct change in the GHG emissions trend (excluding the more variable emissions from LUC), even though the economy continued growing (figure 2.2).
The slowdown brought renewed optimism to climate policy discussions, since it may indicate a necessary peak in global GHG emissions. Preliminary estimates of global GHG emissions suggest they grew12
1.1 percent
in 2017, leaving considerable uncertainty as to whether short-term economic factors were primarily responsible for the 2014–2016 slowdown.
from fossil fuels, industry, and cement slowed due to faster than expected declines in energy and carbon intensity (figure 2.2). Other GHGs (methane (CH4 oxide (N2
Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industrial
emission trends. Despite the strong growth in economic activity (Gross Domestic Product (GDP)) from 2014 to 2016, growth in energy consumption and CO2
processes dominate total GHG emissions, changes in CO2
Since CO2 O), fluorinated gases) continued to grow from
2014 to 2016, but with smaller changes compared with the decadal trend (figure 2.2).
from stronger Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth (estimated at 3.7 percent) and slower declines in energy
processes grew at an annual rate of 2.3 percent from 2004 to 2014. During 2014–2016 emissions had no growth despite the economy growing 3.2 percent/year, meaning that energy and carbon intensity reduced faster in these years than in the previous decade. The increase in global CO2
emissions in 2017 (1.2 percent) resulted
emissions from fossil fuels and industrial emissions have the largest influence on GHG
emissions ), nitrous
10 The scientific community uses different definitions for land-use change emissions compared to UNFCCC, leading to higher estimates in section 2.2 compare to the rest of the report (Grassi et al., 2018).
11 Calculated using the Global Warming Potentials metric from the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), similar to the 2017 Emissions Gap Report.
12 Growth rates are not adjusted for leap years.
Average Annual Growth Rate (% per year)
GDP (PPP) Primary Energy Energy Intensity Carbon Intensity CO2 w/o LUC CH4 N2O
GHG w/o LUC F-gas
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