XVII


Countries that have already peaked have a critical role to play in determining the timing and level of global emissions peaking, as each country’s decarbonization rate after peaking will be a defining factor in global cumulative emissions. However, it is clear that countries that have peaked their GHG emissions have not reduced their emissions at a fast-enough rate since the peak year.


Collectively, G20 members are projected to achieve the Cancun pledges by 2020, but they are not yet on track to realize their NDCs for 2030. Consistent with past Emissions Gap Reports, this report finds that the GHG emissions of the G20 countries, as a group, will not have peaked by 2030 unless there is a rapid increase in ambition and action within the next few years.


While G20 members collectively are on track to achieving the target emission levels in 2020 implied by the Cancun pledges, some countries (Canada, Indonesia, Mexico, the Republic of Korea, South Africa and the USA) are either not projected to achieve their Cancun pledges, or there is uncertainty on whether they will achieve them.


At present, the G20 countries are collectively not on track


to meet their unconditional NDCs for 2030. Around half of the G20 members’ GHG emissions trajectories fall short of achieving their unconditional NDCs (Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU28, the Republic of Korea, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and the USA). Three G20 members (Brazil, China and Japan) are on track to meeting their NDC targets under current policies, while emissions under current policies of three additional countries (India, Russia and Turkey) are projected to be more than 10 percent below their unconditional NDC targets. This may, in some cases, reflect relatively low ambition in the NDCs. It is uncertain whether two countries (Indonesia and Mexico) are on track to meeting their NDC targets in 2030 under current policies.


G20 members will need to implement additional policies to reduce their annual GHG emissions further by about 2.5 GtCO2


2030. These additional reductions needed have gone down by approximately 1 GtCO2


about 3.5 GtCO2


due to lower projections of emissions under current policies in China, the EU28 and the USA.


Table ES.1: Total global greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 under different scenarios (median and 10th range), temperature implications and the resulting emissions gap.


Scenario (rounded to the nearest gigatonne)


No-policy baseline


Current policy


Unconditional NDCs


Conditional NDCs


Below 2.0°C (66% chance)


Number of


scenarios in set


179 4 12 10 29


Global total emissions in 2030 [GtCO2


e] 65 (60–70) 59 (56–60) 56 (52–58) 53 (49–55) Peak: 40 (38–45) 1.7–1.8°C


In 2100: 1.6–1.7°C


Peak:


Below 1.8°C (66% chance)


Below 1.5°C in 2100


(66% chance) 43 34 (30–40) 1.6–1.7°C


In 2100: 1.3–1.6°C


Peak: 13 24 (22–30) 1.5–1.6°C


In 2100: 1.2–1.3°C


Peak: 1.9–2.0°C


In 2100: 1.8–1.9°C


Peak: 1.7–1.8°C


In 2100: 1.5–1.7°C


Peak: 1.6–1.7°C


In 2100: 1.4–1.5°C


Peak: 2.4–2.6°C


In 2100: 2.3–2.5°C


Peak: 2.1–2.3°C


In 2100: 1.9–2.2°C


Peak: 2.0–2.1°C


In 2100: 1.8–1.9°C


Note: The gap numbers and ranges are calculated based on the original numbers (without rounding), which may differ from the rounded numbers (third column) in the table. Numbers are rounded to full GtCO2


Pathways assume limited action until 2020 and cost-optimal mitigation thereafter. Estimated temperature outcomes are based on the method used in the IPCC 5th


from 2018 onwards until net zero CO2 Assessment Report. emissions are reached, or until the end of the century if net zero is not reached before. emissions were less than 600 GtCO2 , between 600 and 900 GtCO2 e. GHG emissions have been aggregated with 100-year global warming potential (GWP) values of


the IPCC Second Assessment Report. The NDC and current policy emission projections may differ slightly from the presented numbers in Cross-Chapter Box 11 of the IPCC Special Report (Bertoldi et al., 2018) due to the inclusion of new studies after the literature cut-off date set by the IPCC. Pathways were grouped in three categories depending on whether their maximum cumulative CO2 between 900 and 1,300 GtCO2


, or 18 (16–20) 15 (12–17) 13 (9–15) 24 (22–25) 21 (17–23) 19 (15–20) 35 (32–36) 32 (28–34) 29 (26–31) Estimated temperature outcomes 50% chance 66% chance 90% chance to 90th percentile


Emissions Gap in 2030 [GtCO2


e]


Below 2°C


Below 1.8°C


Below 1.5°C in 2100


e to achieve their unconditional NDCs and by e to achieve their conditional NDCs by


e compared with 2017,


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