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EMISSIONS GAP REPORT 2018 – INTRODUCTION


This Emissions Gap Report is the 9th


independent


scientific assessment produced by UN Environment to assess how countries’ mitigation actions and pledges are affecting the global greenhouse gas emissions trend, comparing it against the emission reductions necessary to limit global warming to well below 2°C and 1.5°C in accordance with the Paris Agreement. The difference between these is known as the ‘emissions gap’. This report has been prepared at the request of numerous countries as an input to inform international climate negotiations as the full implementation of the Paris Agreement moves closer. A special pre-release version of chapter 5 of this report was published in time for the Global Climate Action Summit.


This year, the Emissions Gap Report has focused on providing information relevant to the Talanoa Dialogue, offering an updated assessment of the important roles and potential contributions of non-state and subnational actors to climate change, and updating and improving the gap assessment, using the most recent studies and scenarios.


The report is organized into seven chapters, including this introduction. Chapter 2 presents an update of current global emissions and assesses the trends and progress of G20 members towards achieving pledged 2020 emission reductions, the Cancun pledges and NDC emission targets. The chapter also considers whether global greenhouse gas emissions show signs of peaking, which is crucial for achieving the temperature targets of the Paris Agreement and depends on when emissions peak in individual countries, the level at which emissions peak and the rate of decline following this. Chapter 3 provides an updated assessment of global emission levels in 2030 consistent with the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement, based on the significantly expanded set of new least-cost scenarios, which were prepared in the context of the IPCC Special Report. Updated estimates of global emission levels in 2030 under different policy and NDC implementation scenarios are also provided. Together, these form the basis for an update of the 2030 emissions gap.


In line with previous editions, the report provides insight into how the emissions gap can be bridged. Chapter 4 presents an overview of options for enhancing the ambition of NDCs, while strengthening action through a suite of domestic policies targeting climate change. Chapter 5 assesses the role and potential of non-state and subnational actors in bridging the emissions gap, based on the most recent studies, while chapter 6 examines the role of fiscal policy reform in creating strong incentives for low carbon investments and reducing greenhouse gas emissions, with particular attention given to carbon pricing and taxation. Finally, chapter 7 assesses how accelerating innovation can help bridge the emissions gap, while also transforming societies. Previous Emissions Gap Reports have covered a number of other important areas and sectors with significant potential to bridge the emissions gap. A summary of these is provided at the back of this report.


This report has been prepared by an international team of 42 leading scientists from 25 scientific groups in 14 countries. As in previous years, a renowned steering committee guided the assessment, which followed a transparent and participatory production process. The assessment methodology and preliminary findings were made available to the governments of countries specifically mentioned in this report, which were invited to comment on the findings.


The information contained in the report provides important inputs to the current debate on global climate policy and the actions needed to meet the goal of the Paris Agreement. Meeting the 2030 targets is crucial for limiting the adverse impacts of climate change and creating the foundation necessary to develop more ambitious mitigation targets under the NDCs beyond 2030, aimed at achieving emission neutrality in the second half of this century alongside sustainable development and poverty eradication efforts.


UN Environment hopes that this 9th edition of the


Emissions Gap Report will support the much-needed move towards enhanced ambition and accelerated action in the forthcoming climate negotiations in Katowice.


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