7
percent of the total GHG emissions over the last decade when excluding LUC, the top 7 (including Russia, Japan and international transport) account for more than 66 percent, while G20 members contribute 78 percent. Aggregated GHG emissions from G20 countries grew at 2.1 percent/year from 2004 to 2014, remained relatively steady from 2014 to 2016 and are estimated to grow 0.9 percent in 2017. Even though emission reductions are needed from all countries, the top emitters are responsible for most of the changes in global emissions.
marked decline in coal consumption. Some reports have speculated that Chinese emissions, more specifically coal consumption, may have peaked (Qi et al., 2016).
China emits more than one quarter (27 percent) of global GHG emissions (excluding LUC), and the ups and downs of Chinese emissions leave an important signature on global emissions growth. From 2004 to 2014, Chinese GHG emissions grew at an annual rate of 6 percent (accounting for two thirds of global emissions growth), before declining slightly from 2014 to 2016. The slowdown during the 2014–2016 period was across all GHGs, though CO2
dominated the trend due to a
However, the increase of 1.2 percent in global CO2 emissions in 2017, due to renewed growth of emissions at a rate of 0.9 percent, suggests that it may be too soon to consider Chinese emissions to have peaked.
but there has been strong growth in fluorinated gas emissions. This indicates that the USA made considerable contributions to the observed slowdown in global GHG emissions growth for the 2014–2016 period.
The European Union (EU) and USA play key strategic roles in global climate policy due to their historical responsibility, and together account for more than 20 percent of global GHG emissions (13 percent for the USA and 9 percent for the EU, excluding LUC). Emissions in the USA likely peaked in 2007 and decreased at an annual rate of 0.4 percent from 2004 to 2014. The rate of reductions increased from 2014 to 2016 (annual declines of 2 percent), with significant drops in 2015 and 2016 due to less coal-powered electricity generation. Emissions decreased slightly in 2017 by 0.3 percent. Reductions have been strongest for CO2
emissions,
have also increased and the growth of fluorinated gas emissions has also remained strong. CH4
due to strong growth in oil and gas use are largely responsible for the overall rise, though N2
continued to decline but at a slower rate.
Due to its large population, India’s GHG emissions represent 7.1 percent of the global total, despite its low per capita emissions and large parts of the population needing better living standards. Indian emissions grew strongly in the 2004–2014 period, at an annual rate of 5
Collective progress towards the Cancun pledges and NDCs
G20 members are collectively projected to achieve the conditional end of the Cancun pledges for 2020 under current policies. However, as table 2.1 indicates, six G20
O emissions emissions
The EU has had steady declines in GHG emissions since 1990, with accelerated reductions of 2 percent/ year from 2004 to 2014. However, EU emissions have been increasing since 2014 (on average 1 percent/year), reversing the long-term trend. Increases in CO2
percent, with only a slight respite during the 2014–2016 period, when the annual rate dropped to 3 percent. India’s GHG emissions are estimated to grow at a rate of 3 percent in 2017 due to the demonetization process (removal of some rupees from circulation) and the introduction of a goods and services tax.14
Although the top 4 countries represent 56 percent of global GHG emissions (excluding LUC), this does not downplay the importance of the remaining countries. GHG emissions in the Russian Federation are 4.6 percent of the global total and since 2014 have continued to grow by about 1 percent/year (excluding LUC). In Japan, GHG emissions (2.9 percent of the global total) have declined on average 1 percent/year since 2014, despite significant fluctuations following the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster. Emissions from international aviation and marine transport, which represent 2.5 percent of global GHG emissions, have grown strongly at an annual rate of over 2 percent since 2014.
Despite a distinct slowdown in emissions growth from 2014 to 2016, initial data for 2017 indicates GHG emissions have started to increase, both globally and in key countries. It is unclear whether the 2017 growth trend will be sustained in the next few years or whether 2017 will just be an anomalous year as global emissions reach a plateau. While it seemed that global GHG emissions could peak in the near future, recent changes have now delayed this.
2.4 Assessment of current policies: are G20 members on track to meet the Cancun pledges for 2020 and NDC targets for 2030, and to peak their emissions?
2.4.1 Overview and comparison of G20 members emissions
As G20 members currently account for around 78 percent of global emissions, they will greatly influence the achievement of the Paris Agreement climate goal. This section provides an update of the extent to which G20 members are putting in place and implementing policies that enable them to meet the Cancun pledges and NDCs. In addition, it offers an overview of G20 members’ respective shares of global emissions, the implications of their unconditional NDCs for per capita emissions and where they stand with respect to peaking of emissions and decarbonization rates. Table 2.1 provides a comparative overview of this information for all G20 members (with the EU28 represented collectively instead of as the four Member States that are also individual G20 members).
14
https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why-indias-co2-emissions-grew-strongly-in-2017.
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32 |
Page 33 |
Page 34 |
Page 35 |
Page 36 |
Page 37 |
Page 38 |
Page 39 |
Page 40 |
Page 41 |
Page 42 |
Page 43 |
Page 44 |
Page 45 |
Page 46 |
Page 47 |
Page 48 |
Page 49 |
Page 50 |
Page 51 |
Page 52 |
Page 53 |
Page 54 |
Page 55 |
Page 56 |
Page 57 |
Page 58 |
Page 59 |
Page 60 |
Page 61 |
Page 62 |
Page 63 |
Page 64 |
Page 65 |
Page 66 |
Page 67 |
Page 68 |
Page 69 |
Page 70 |
Page 71 |
Page 72 |
Page 73 |
Page 74 |
Page 75 |
Page 76 |
Page 77 |
Page 78 |
Page 79 |
Page 80 |
Page 81 |
Page 82 |
Page 83 |
Page 84 |
Page 85 |
Page 86 |
Page 87 |
Page 88 |
Page 89 |
Page 90 |
Page 91 |
Page 92 |
Page 93 |
Page 94 |
Page 95 |
Page 96 |
Page 97 |
Page 98 |
Page 99 |
Page 100 |
Page 101 |
Page 102 |
Page 103 |
Page 104 |
Page 105 |
Page 106 |
Page 107 |
Page 108 |
Page 109 |
Page 110 |
Page 111 |
Page 112
