8


EMISSIONS GAP REPORT 2018 – TRENDS AND PROGRESS TOWARDS THE CANCUN PLEDGES, NDC TARGETS AND PEAKING OF EMISSIONS


members (Canada, Indonesia, Mexico, the Republic of Korea, South Africa, the USA) are either not projected to achieve their Cancun pledges, or have uncertainty on whether they will achieve it.


At present, G20 countries are collectively not on track to meet their unconditional NDCs for 2030. Based on an assessment of current policies, around half of G20 members fall short of achieving their unconditional NDCs (Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU28, the Republic of Korea, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and the USA) (table 2.1 and figure 2.4). Under current policies, three G20 members (Brazil, China and Japan) are on track to meet their NDC targets, while emissions under current policies of three additional countries (India, Russia and Turkey) are projected to be more than 10 percent below their unconditional NDC targets. It is uncertain whether two countries (Indonesia and Mexico) are on track to meet their NDC targets in 2030 under current policies.


It is estimated that G20 members will need to implement additional policies to reduce GHG emissions further by about 2.5 GtCO2


NDCs and 3.5 GtCO2


e/year to achieve their unconditional e/year to achieve their conditional


compared with 2017, due to lower projections of emission reductions under current policies in China, the EU28 and the USA.


NDCs by 2030. The estimate of additional reductions needed has decreased by approximately 1 GtCO2


e


It is important to note that a country likely to meet or exceed its NDCs based on current policies is not necessarily undertaking more stringent mitigation action than a country that is not on track. It can also indicate


that the ambition of the current NDC could be enhanced. According to the Paris Agreement, countries are obliged to regularly update and strengthen their NDCs. The assessment conducted in this section is based on current NDCs, recognizing that they are to be revised and should be strengthened considerably by 2020 to reduce global emissions to levels consistent with limiting global warming to below 2°C or 1.5°C by 2030 (see chapter 3).


Peaking of emissions and decarbonization rates


Countries that have historically peaked have a critical role to play in determining the timing and level of global emissions peaking, as each country’s decarbonization rate after peaking will be a defining factor for global cumulative emissions. Countries that have already peaked their GHG emissions have not reduced their emissions at fast enough rates since the peak year. For example, an 80 percent reduction of emissions between 2005 and 2050 requires a constant annual reduction rate of 3.5 percent/year for the period. By contrast, the G20 members that have peaked show constant annual emission reduction rates ranging between 0.6 percent/ year (Canada) and 2.5 percent/year (Russia) up to 2016 for all GHG emissions, including land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) (table 2.1). Brazil, the only non-Annex I member of the G20 that has peaked its GHG emissions to date, showed an average reduction rate of 12 percent/year between 2004 and 2012 due to the large reductions in emissions from LULUCF. Brazil’s GHG emissions from non-LULUCF sectors have increased by 2.4 percent/year on average (table 2.1).


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