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Chapter 2. Trends and progress towards the Cancun pledges, NDC targets and peaking of emissions
Lead authors: Takeshi Kuramochi (NewClimate Institute), Michel den Elzen (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency), Kelly Levin (World Resources Institute), Glen Peters (Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research, Norway)
Contributing authors: Gabriel Blanco (National University of the Center of the Buenos Aires Province, Argentina), Jasmin Cantzler (Climate Analytics), Frederic Hans (NewClimate Institute), Alexandre Koberle (Alberto Luiz Coimbra Institute for Graduate Studies and Research in Engineering, Brazil), Lisa Luna (NewClimate Institute), Ritu Mathur (The Energy and Resources Institute, India), Marilena Muntean (Joint Research Centre, European Commission), Jos Olivier (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency), Jorge Villarreal Padilla (Iniciativa Climática de México), David Rich (World Resources Institute), Fu Sha (National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation, China), Heleen van Soest (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)
2.1 Introduction
This chapter examines the latest trends in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and progress towards achieving both the Cancun pledges and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Particular focus is given to the peaking of emissions at the global and national levels (section 2.2), the current status and recent trends of global GHG emissions and for emitting countries (section 2.3), and whether GHG emissions are peaking at the national level and the implications for global peaking. In addition, this chapter also assesses whether countries are on track to meet their Cancun pledges and NDC targets and provides and update of recent policy developments in G20 member countries (section 2.4).
2.2 Peaking of greenhouse gas emissions
To limit global warming to well below 2°C and 1.5°C, global GHG emissions have to peak and decline rapidly thereafter. Mitigation pathways consistent with a likely chance of achieving the temperature targets require that, global emissions peak by 2020. The Paris Agreement suggests that Parties should collectively aim to reach global peaking of GHG emissions “as soon as possible”, recognizing that “peaking will take longer for developing country Parties” and should be guided by the principle of equity, acknowledging common but differentiated responsibilities and capabilities.
Global and national peaking of emissions and the ability to meet the climate objective of the Paris Agreement are dependent on three factors: the timing of national and global peaking, the level of emissions peaking and
the rate of decline in emissions following the peak. It is therefore crucial that countries not only commit to peaking their emissions at lower levels, but that they achieve this as soon as possible and that the subsequent rate of emissions decline is substantial (Levin and Rich, 2017). Although this applies to all countries, major emitters play a key role in determining when and at what level global emissions peak. This chapter therefore pays particular attention to G20 members, who currently account for around 78 percent of global GHG emissions.
Figure 2.1 shows the steady progress from 1990 to 2030 in the number of countries that have either peaked their emissions or are expected to do so, provided that they meet their commitments, alongside the percentage of global emissions of these countries. By 2030, up to 57 countries representing 60 percent of global emissions will have peaked, if they fulfil their commitments.
A country is considered to have peaked its emissions if two criteria are met: its emissions reached their maximum level at least 5 years before the most recent GHG inventory year; and the country has unconditionally committed to continue lowering its emissions below the peak emissions level in the future. In some countries classified as having peaked, emissions declined after the initial peak year and then increased again, rather than declining steadily after the initial peak year. Despite these fluctuations, the initial peak year is still considered as the peak, since emissions are below this maximum emission level.1
1 See Levin and Rich (2017) for a full discussion of the methodology and assumptions on how peaking was determined. One limitation of the referenced study is that it takes countries’ commitments at face value by assuming they will be achieved by the target date, without considering whether targets will be underachieved or overachieved.
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