6


EMISSIONS GAP REPORT 2018 – TRENDS AND PROGRESS TOWARDS THE CANCUN PLEDGES, NDC TARGETS AND PEAKING OF EMISSIONS


and especially carbon intensity. The 2017 growth raises concerns that the progress made in the 2014–2016 period may be short-lived.


Global CO2 emissions from LUC are less strongly linked emissions from LUC are often considered


al., 2017; WMO, 2017). The remaining GHGs (CH4


independently from emissions from fossil fuels and industrial processes. Over the last decade, emissions from LUC accounted for 10 percent of total GHG emissions, a share that is declining due to the strong growth in emissions from fossil fuels and industrial processes. Emissions from LUC have remained relatively stable for decades, albeit with high uncertainty on the level and trend of these (Le Quéré et al., 2018). In 2015, emissions from LUC were relatively high due to El Niño causing hotter and drier conditions in the tropics, resulting in more intense fires and thus more rapid growth in CO2


to economic activity, more volatile owing to changes in climatic conditions and uncertain due to purely constrained input data (Le Quéré et al., 2018). For these reasons, CO2


responsible for 25 percent of GHG emissions over the last decade when excluding LUC, rising to 32 percent when including LUC.13


, N2 roughly half the rate of CO2 Non-CO2 GHGs have grown at emissions since 1990. CH4 O, fluorinated gases) are


emissions are responsible for 16 percent of global GHG emissions (excluding LUC) over the last decade and grew at an annual rate of 1.4 percent from 2004 to 2014 and only 0.5 percent from 2014 and 2016, with growth estimated to be 0.3 percent in 2017. Concentrations of CH4


in the atmosphere have grown faster than expected in the last decade (Saunois et al., 2016), primarily due to biogenic emissions in the tropics and fossil fuel emissions in temperate regions (Worden et al., 2017), though scientific debate on the causes continues.


N2


percent of total GHG emissions and continue to have strong growth at around 5 percent/year.


concentration in the atmosphere (Peters et


O emissions are responsible for 6.3 percent of GHG emissions (excluding LUC) and had more rapid growth from 2014 to 2016 (1.4 percent/year) and 2017 (1.4 percent) than from 2004 to 2014 (0.8 percent/ year), compared with other gases. Fluorinated gases (hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulphur hexafluoride (SF6


)) are only responsible for 2.4


While global emissions statistics provide important information on collective progress, they mask the dynamics at the country level (figure 2.3). The 2014– 2016 slowdown in the growth of global emissions and the return to modest growth in 2017 is indicative of countries’ underlying behaviour. The top 4 emitters (China, USA, EU28 and India) contribute to over 56


Figure 2.3: Global greenhouse gas emissions per type of gas (left) and top greenhouse gas emitters excluding land-use change emissions due to lack of reliable data (right).


60 GHG w LUC GHG w/o LUC 50 40 30 6 20 10 0 1970 1980 1990 Source: EDGAR v5.0/v4.3.2 FT2017 CO2 2000 2010 2017 3


CH4 CO2 w/o LUC


LUC


F-gas N2O


9 12 15 China


Russia USA


India EU-28


int. transport Japan


0 1970 1980 (Olivier et al., 2018) and Global Carbon Project (Le Quéré et al., 2018). 1990 2000 2010 2017


13 Weighted using a Global Warming Potential of the IPCC Second Assessment Report and 100 years as the time period, which is common in climate policy.


GtCO2e


GtCO2e


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