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EMISSIONS GAP REPORT 2018 – TRENDS AND PROGRESS TOWARDS THE CANCUN PLEDGES, NDC TARGETS AND PEAKING OF EMISSIONS
the Kyoto Protocol’s 1st MtCO2
Under its Cancun pledge, Australia proposed 3 targets for 2020 with different conditions: 5 percent, 15 percent and 25 percent below emission levels in 2000. The goal of 5 percent currently stands as Australia’s unconditional pledge. In accordance with the Kyoto Protocol, Australia uses a carbon budget approach that accounts for cumulative emissions between 2013 and 2020 in order to assess progress against its pledge. For the budget period, Australia is on track to overachieve its 2020 target by 166 MtCO2
e without including carry-over from commitment period and by 294
e with carry-over (Department of the Environment
and Energy, 2017b). Independent studies consider the year 2020 in isolation and find Australia’s current policy trajectory close to achieving its target.
In its NDC, Australia announced a 26–28 percent reduction below 2005 levels of GHG emissions by 2030 (UNFCCC, 2016). There has been no improvement in Australia’s climate policy since 2017 and emission levels for 2030 are projected to be well above the NDC target. The latest projection published by the government shows that emissions would remain at high levels rather than reducing in line with the 2030 target (Department of the Environment and Energy, 2017a; CAT, 2018c). The Emissions Reduction Fund, which aims to purchase emissions reductions at the lowest available cost through auctions, and its safeguard mechanism are the main existing policies.
43 percent below 2005 levels respectively). Recent independent studies suggest that current policy scenario projections are well below the Cancun pledge level and in line with the NDC targets (Kitous et al., 2017; Kuramochi et al., 2017a; CAT, 2018d). GHG emission projections have been revised downward compared with previous year’s (referenced in the 2017 Emissions Gap Report). Uncertainty remains about the future of the country’s GHG emissions growth. For example, emissions from LULUCF reduced by 86 percent between 2005 and 2012 (Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation, 2016), but recent data and analyses suggest that the decreasing trend for deforestation and the resulting reductions in GHG emissions have slowed down or even stopped (Azevedo et al., 2018). In fact, the recent political crisis in the country has forced a weak government to concede reversals in environmental regulation as a bargaining chip to maintain power, which may potentially impact GHG emissions from land use as well as Brazil’s contribution towards global climate targets (Rochedo et al., 2018). The newly elected president of Brazil has indicated that he wants to limit environmental constraints on agriculture.
dropping to 1.2 GtCO2
In February 2018, the National Congress approved the National Biofuels Policy (RenovaBio – Decree No. 9.308), which seeks to boost the use of renewable fuels and expand its share in the energy mix. Recent electricity auctions have targeted solar energy, signalling a potential increase in solar capacity in the country in
Brazil’s Cancun pledge aims to reduce GHG emissions in 2020 by 36.1–38.9 percent compared with business as usual and its NDC target aims to reduce emissions to 1.3 GtCO2
e/year by 2025 with the emission level e/year by 2030 (37 percent and
the coming years. Existing contracts for solar electricity in operation and under construction total around 4 GW nominal capacity (CCEE, 2018).
Canada pledged to reduce its economy-wide GHG emissions by 17 percent below 2005 levels by 2020 and 30 percent by 2030 (UNFCCC, 2014; UNFCCC, 2016). Canada could achieve its 2020 target under a low economic growth scenario, but it is not likely to achieve its NDC target (Government of Canada, 2017; CAT, 2018e). However, recent analysis suggests that Canada’s emissions will be 4–6 percent lower in 2030 than projected in 2016, suggesting that progress is being made towards the target (Kitous et al., 2017; Kuramochi et al., 2017a; PBL, 2017; CAT, 2018e). In October 2017, Canada published regulations to phase down the production and consumption of HFCs in accordance with the Kigali Amendment. Canada is also planning a federal carbon pricing backstop system to enforce carbon pricing in provinces that have not implemented a provincial system by the end of 2018 (Government of Canada, 2017).
making best efforts to peak earlier; (2) reduce the carbon intensity of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 60–65 percent from 2005 levels; (3) increase the share of non- fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 20 percent; and (4) increase the forest stock volume by around 4.5 billion m3
by 40–45 percent by 2020 and its NDC includes 4 major targets for 2030: (1) peak CO2
China pledged to reduce the intensity of CO2 emissions around 2030, from 2005 levels. Independent
studies, including those recently published (Sha et al., 2015; den Elzen et al., 2016; IEA, 2017; CAT, 2018f), suggest that China will likely achieve emission level targets in line with its Cancun pledges and NDC targets.
Recent independent studies (Kitous et al., 2017; Kuramochi et al., 2017a; CAT, 2018f) have revised their emissions projections down compared with previous
years (UNEP, 2017), but do not strongly suggest that CO2 emissions will peak before 2030. Contrastingly, other recent studies argue that recent structural shifts in the economy are likely to result in much steeper reductions in CO2
emissions between 2020 and 2025. Guan et al. emissions
intensity of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Green
and Stern (2017) provide an illustrative pathway in which intensity is halved from 2005 to 2020, resulting in peaked CO2
China is structural and is likely to be sustained if recently started transitions of industrial and energy systems continue.
details are yet to be shared, including the start date and the level and distribution of emissions allowances. It is estimated that the full scheme will cover 5 GtCO2
China announced a new national emissions trading system in December 2017, which is expected to be fully operational by 2020. Initially, the system will apply only to the power sector, but may be expanded to other sectors in the future. The system’s overall impact on CO2
/year
when it includes both the power and industrial sectors, and 3–3.5 GtCO2
/year when only applied to the power sector as planned for the first few years (NewClimate (2018) also conclude that the decline of CO2 emissions in
emissions is currently unclear, as many operational
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