13
Institute, PBL and IIASA, 2018). Further features of China’s national emissions trading system are described in Jotzo et al. (2018). The National Development and Reform Commission announced it will reduce steel capacity by around 30 million tonnes and coal output by about 150 million tonnes in 2018, thus achieving its Five- Year Plan targets ahead of the original target year 2020.
In its Cancun pledge, the EU28 committed to reducing GHG emissions by 20 percent below 1990 levels by 2020, which it is expected to overachieve. In its NDC, the EU has put forward a binding, economy-wide target of reducing domestic GHG emissions by 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030. Recent independent studies, including (CAT, 2018g), the European Environment Agency Trends and Projections Report (European Environment Agency, 2017) and the EU Reference Scenario (European Commission, 2016b), suggest that the EU will fall slightly short of its NDC target under existing policies. The EU recognizes that it is not on track to meet its 2030 target with current policies and has adopted a large package of measures aimed at accelerating the reduction of GHG emissions in different areas. The impact of these adopted measures is not included in the analysis of the studies cited above. More specifically, the revision of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) for 2021–2030 was adopted in March 2018, encompassing 3 key elements: (1) reducing the cap at an annual rate of 2.2 percent from 2021 onwards; (2) doubling the Market Stability Reserve feeding rate between 2019 and 2023 to reduce surplus of allowances; and (3) invalidating allowances in the Market Stability Reserve exceeding the number of allowances auctioned in the previous year from 2023 onwards (Council of the European Union, 2017b). The provisionally agreed Effort Sharing Regulation applying to GHG emissions from sectors not covered by EU ETS (transport, buildings, agriculture and waste management) was adopted in May 2018. The overall targeted reduction in GHG emissions from these sectors is 30 percent by 2030, relative to 2005, which is to be achieved by legally binding annual emission limits for each Member State for the 2021–2030 period (Council of the European Union, 2017c). The EU has also adopted a regulation to integrate GHG emissions and removals from LULUCF into the 2030 climate and energy framework (European Parliament, 2018) and proposals to amend the Energy Efficiency Directive and the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (European Commission, 2016a; Council of the European Union, 2017a). By June 2018, the Governance of the Energy Union Regulation was agreed, which sets out the trajectory and interim targets for achieving the recently agreed 2030 goals of 32 percent renewable energy and 32.5 percent energy savings and requirements for regular progress reports.
India’s Cancun pledge aims to reduce the emissions intensity of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 20–25 percent below 2005 levels in 2020. In its NDC, India commits to reducing its emissions intensity of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 33–35 percent below 2005 levels by 2030, increasing the share of non-fossil energy in total power generation capacity to 40 percent (with help of international support), and creating an additional
and tree cover. These translate into emission levels of 4.4–7.5 GtCO2
cumulative carbon sink of 2.5–3 GtCO2e through forest e/year and 4.2–5.9 GtCO2
e/year in 2030
for the unconditional and conditional NDCs respectively. With its currently implemented policies, India is likely to achieve its Cancun pledge and conditional NDC targets (IEA, 2017; Kitous et al., 2017; Kuramochi et al., 2017a; Mitra et al., 2017; PBL, 2017; Vishwanathan and Garg, 2017; CAT, 2018h; Dubash et al., 2018). Dubash et al. (2018) reviewed several studies and found that India’s NDC intensity pledge is consistent with current (circa 2015) policies. Recent analysis by The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) (COMMIT, 2018) indicates that India is also likely to meet and even overachieve its emissions intensity reduction target.
Several recently proposed initiatives have the potential to contribute significantly towards this target. Of major relevance are the actions that are likely to be undertaken under the National Solar Mission, the programmes implemented under the National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency such as the Perform, Achieve and Trade scheme and the Standards and Labelling scheme, and the Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of (Hybrid &) Electric Vehicles initiative adopted in April 2018. However, there are considerable uncertainties regarding the scale and pace of adopting various technologies such as electric vehicles and renewable-based power generation. The scale-up and adoption of these options depends on how quickly technology and battery costs can attain commercial viability and become the preferred alternatives.
In its Cancun pledge, Indonesia pledges an unconditional 26 percent and a conditional 41 percent reduction below business as usual GHG emissions by 2020. Similarly, its NDC sets an unconditional 29 percent and a conditional 41 percent (with sufficient international support) reduction target below business as usual for GHG emissions by 2030. The NDC includes emissions from deforestation and peat land destruction, which are the country’s largest sources of GHG emissions. There is large uncertainty on the GHG emission level of Indonesia’s Cancun pledge due to the business as usual emission data used. Studies, including those recently published (Kitous et al., 2017; Kuramochi et al., 2017; CAT 2018) do not agree on whether the Cancun pledge and NDC targets are likely to be met under policies currently implemented. Two recent studies (Kitous et al., 2017; CAT 2018i), both excluding LULUCF, suggest that the conditional NDC may be achieved, while Kuramochi et al. (2017) project that Indonesia will fall short of achieving its Cancun pledge and unconditional NDC target, partially due to large growth in emissions from LULUCF.
Japan is committed to reducing its GHG emissions by 3.8 percent below 2005 levels by 2020 and 26 percent below 2013 levels by 2030. Recent studies (Kitous et al., 2017) project that Japan will overachieve its 2020 pledge due to low growth in electricity demand since 2012. Japan may reach its 2030 NDC target with existing policies, but uncertainty over future nuclear and coal power remains (CAT, 2018g). Compared with previous year’s projections, the 2017 update from the EU Joint Research Centre (JRC) (Kitous et al., 2017) projected 7.5
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32 |
Page 33 |
Page 34 |
Page 35 |
Page 36 |
Page 37 |
Page 38 |
Page 39 |
Page 40 |
Page 41 |
Page 42 |
Page 43 |
Page 44 |
Page 45 |
Page 46 |
Page 47 |
Page 48 |
Page 49 |
Page 50 |
Page 51 |
Page 52 |
Page 53 |
Page 54 |
Page 55 |
Page 56 |
Page 57 |
Page 58 |
Page 59 |
Page 60 |
Page 61 |
Page 62 |
Page 63 |
Page 64 |
Page 65 |
Page 66 |
Page 67 |
Page 68 |
Page 69 |
Page 70 |
Page 71 |
Page 72 |
Page 73 |
Page 74 |
Page 75 |
Page 76 |
Page 77 |
Page 78 |
Page 79 |
Page 80 |
Page 81 |
Page 82 |
Page 83 |
Page 84 |
Page 85 |
Page 86 |
Page 87 |
Page 88 |
Page 89 |
Page 90 |
Page 91 |
Page 92 |
Page 93 |
Page 94 |
Page 95 |
Page 96 |
Page 97 |
Page 98 |
Page 99 |
Page 100 |
Page 101 |
Page 102 |
Page 103 |
Page 104 |
Page 105 |
Page 106 |
Page 107 |
Page 108 |
Page 109 |
Page 110 |
Page 111 |
Page 112
