27
4.5.1 Technical mitigation potential in 2030
assessment showed that, based on basic potentials, global emissions could be reduced by 33 (range of 30– 36) GtCO2
Estimates of the technical mitigation potential shed light on the upper limit for emission reductions in given future years. The 2017 edition of the Emissions Gap Report (UNEP, 2017) provided an updated assessment of the sectoral emission reduction potentials that are technically and economically feasible in 2030, considering prices up to US$100/tCO2
e.3 The
a number of newer and less certain mitigation options were included, the mitigation potential would increase to 38 (range of 35–41) GtCO2
scenario of 59 GtCO2
e/year in 2030, compared to the current policy e/year (chapter 3). If, in addition,
e. The emissions reduction
potential is thus sufficient to bridge the gap in 2030. It is more than twice the size of the emissions gap for 2°C and still sufficient to bring global emissions in 2030 to a level consistent with least-cost 1.5°C pathways. However, the significantly higher 1.5°C gap estimated in this year’s report implies that there would be less leeway in delivering the required emissions reductions.
Estimates of technical emission reduction potential differ significantly between studies and realizing the potentials assumes that all technologies available are fully deployed nationally and globally. The feasibility of this depends on removing various barriers, including technical, financial, capacity and political barriers. However, it is worth noting that around 40 percent of the technical mitigation potential is estimated to comprise measures in solar and wind energy, efficient appliances, efficient passenger cars, afforestation, and avoiding deforestation (UNEP, 2017). All these measures can be realized at low and, in some cases, net-negative incremental costs and primarily build on proven policies. While national circumstances determine the scope and appropriateness of specific measures, studies point to significant mitigation potential in all countries.
4.5.2 Good-practice policies and their global application
Since 2012, the Emissions Gap Reports have provided examples of policies in key areas and sectors that have proven successful in reducing GHG emissions in countries and regions around the world, while contributing to national development goals (an overview of sectors and issues covered in previous Emissions Gap Reports is provided at the end of this report). Such policies have the potential to make a significant contribution to bridging the gap, if they are scaled up in terms of their ambition and geographical coverage.
Several studies provide estimates of the global emission reductions that could be achieved, if existing good- practice policies were replicated universally (see for example Afanador et al., 2015; Fekete et al., 2015; Kriegler et al., 2018; Roelfsema et al., 2018). The studies
highlight that significant potential exists in all countries and that replication of proven good-practice policies could reduce global emissions considerably compared to the full implementation of the current NDCs, thereby narrowing the 2030 gap compared to a 2°C pathway.
differ in assumptions, approaches and policies covered, and subsequently also in their estimates of global emission reduction potentials. However, they typically find that global emissions in 2030 could be reduced to levels of between 42–49 GtCO2
e/year. The studies
As studies of the global emission reduction potential from universal replication of existing good-practice policies do not consider the implementation of all technically feasible options, they arrive at lower reduction estimates than those based on total technical mitigation potential. On the other hand, their implementation may be more feasible as the policies considered have already been proven in some countries. However, they may not be directly applicable to all other countries.
4.5.3 Maximizing sustainable development benefits
National development priorities such as economic development, reduced air pollution, employment, and energy security are often the main drivers of domestic policies. However, as mentioned above, sound climate change policies will often contribute to national development goals and vice versa.
in 2030. The New Climate Economy report (2018) states that “low-carbon growth could deliver economic benefits of US$26 trillion to 2030”. Other studies find that meeting a trajectory compatible with the Paris Agreement’s long- term goals can support the fulfilment of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in terms of energy access, clean water, air pollution and food security (McCollum et al., 2018). The IEA World Energy Outlook (IEA, 2017) includes a sustainable development scenario, which meets the Paris Agreement’s long-term goals and achieves cleaner air and universal access to modern energy and reducing energy security risks.
A growing number of studies analyze how maximization of development benefits can reduce global GHG emissions significantly in the near future, thereby contributing to narrowing the gap. The New Climate Economy report of 2015 (The New Climate Economy, 2015), for example, estimated that actions in eight focus areas could achieve significant economic benefits and reduce global GHG emissions by between 43–53 GtCO2
4.5.4 Filling gaps in NDC coverage
One option for enhancing ambition in the NDCs is to expand them to cover all sectors and gases (see figure 4.1). Previous studies have reviewed the emission reduction potential associated with expanding the coverage of current NDCs to all sectors and gases. Assuming that reductions achieved in the newly covered
e
3
An order of magnitude referred to by, for example, Stiglitz et al. (2017).
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