10


EMISSIONS GAP REPORT 2018 – TRENDS AND PROGRESS TOWARDS THE CANCUN PLEDGES, NDC TARGETS AND PEAKING OF EMISSIONS


To assess whether the changes in emission-related indicators as a result of NDCs are both ambitious and fair (in line with the long-term goal of the Paris Agreement) would require a thorough evaluation of normative indicators of burden-sharing indicators, which is beyond the scope of this report. However, a number of recent peer-reviewed studies attempt this task, based on various effort-sharing considerations (Höhne et al., 2014; Pan et al., 2017; Robiou du Pont et al., 2017; CAT, 2018a; Holz et al., 2018).


Figure 2.4 provides a detailed comparison of estimated emissions under current policies and the full implementation of NDCs for all G20 members, mapping these against 1990 and 2010 emissions. For each of the G20 members, median GHG emission projections have been calculated for current policies and full implementation of the NDC, using information from a recently published study (den Elzen et al., forthcoming), which updates and expands the data sources covered in the 2017 Emissions Gap Report (UNEP, 2017), using the


most up-to-date data from countries’ recently published National Communications, 3rd


biennial reports of 7


G20 members, and several other new national studies for policies and NDC projections. The estimates draw on official country data and independent sources (see den Elzen et al. 2018 for further details). GHG emission projections under current policies from independent analyses presented in this chapter cover main energy and climate policies implemented by a recent cut-off date and do not consider prospective policies that are being debated or planned. Similarly, current policy and NDC estimates only partially cover commitments and actions made by non-state and subnational actors to date and do not fully reflect the implications of recent significant declines in the cost of renewable energy sources. The role and potential of non-state and subnational actors is assessed in chapter 5, while chapter 7 discusses the role of innovation policy and market creation.


Figure 2.4: Greenhouse gas emissions (all gases and sectors) of the G20 and its individual members by 2030 under different scenarios and compared with historical emissions.


Figure 2.4a. 16


12


1990 2010 Current policies (official data) Current policies (all studies) Unconditional NDC (all studies) Conditional NDC (all studies)


8


4


4 GtCO2e


0 China


Notes: For reporting reasons, the emission projections for China, the EU, India and the USA are shown in figure 2.4a with and the other countries shown in figure 2.4b, using 2 different vertical axes. As a conservative assumption, South Africa is not considered as having a firm commitment to peak, since there is no guarantee that the conditions upon which they made the pledge will be met. * For the USA, the unconditional NDC is for 2025.


1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0


EU-28 India USA (2025)* 4 GtCO2e


1990 2010 Current policies (official data) Current policies (all studies) Unconditional NDC (all studies) Conditional NDC (all studies)


Emissions (GtCO2e/yr) Emissions (GtCO2e/yr)


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