XIV EMISSIONS GAP REPORT 2018 – EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Executive summary
This is the 9th
edition of the UN Environment Emissions
Gap Report. It assesses the latest scientific studies on current and estimated future greenhouse gas emissions and compares these with the emission levels permissible for the world to progress on a least-cost pathway to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. This difference between “where we are likely to be and where we need to be” is known as the ‘emissions gap’. As in previous years, the report explores some of the most important options available for countries to bridge the gap.
The political context this year is provided by several processes and events:
• The Talanoa Dialogue – an inclusive, participatory and transparent dialogue about ambitions and actions, conducted under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and designed to help build momentum for new or updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to be submitted by 2020.
• The Global Climate Action Summit in September 2018 – bringing together many non-state and subnational actors (NSAs) that are actively involved in climate issues.
• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C – focusing on “the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty”. The Emissions Gap Report has benefited significantly from the IPCC Special Report and its underlying studies.
This Emissions Gap Report has been prepared by an international team of leading scientists, assessing all available information, including that published in the
context of the IPCC Special Report, as well as in other recent scientific studies. The assessment production process has been transparent and participatory. The assessment methodology and preliminary findings were made available to the governments of the countries specifically mentioned in the report to provide them with the opportunity to comment on the findings.
1. Current commitments expressed in the NDCs are inadequate to bridge the emissions gap in 2030. Technically, it is still possible to bridge the gap to ensure global warming stays well below 2°C and 1.5°C, but if NDC ambitions are not increased before 2030, exceeding the 1.5°C goal can no longer be avoided. Now more than ever, unprecedented and urgent action is required by all nations. The assessment of actions by the G20 countries indicates that this is yet to happen; in fact, global CO2
stagnation.
This year’s report presents the newest assessment of the emissions gap in 2030 between emission levels under full implementation of the unconditional and conditional NDCs and those consistent with least-cost pathways to stay below 2°C and 1.5°C respectively.
• With the results of the new global studies prepared for the IPCC report, the emissions gap – especially to stay below 1.5°C warming – has increased significantly in comparison with previous estimates, as new studies explore more variations and make more cautious assumptions about the possibility of global carbon dioxide- removal deployment.
• Pathways reflecting current NDCs imply global warming of about 3°C by 2100, with warming continuing afterwards. If the emissions gap is not closed by 2030, it is very plausible that the goal of a well-below 2°C temperature increase is also out of reach.
emissions increased in 2017 after three years of
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