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EMISSIONS GAP REPORT 2018 – BRIDGING THE GAP: STRENGTHENING NDCS AND DOMESTIC POLICIES


sectors and gases are comparable with those in sectors and gases currently covered by NDCs, the global potential is limited to a few GtCO2


e by 2030 (Rogelj et


al., 2016). At the same time, countries could elect to go beyond the existing level of ambition in increasing their coverage. Ross et al. (2018) finds significant potential, including development benefits, in addressing short-lived climate pollutants. However, while some countries have important gaps to fill in sectors and gases, from a global perspective, the bulk of the mitigation potential lies in strengthening the emissions reductions from sectors and gases that are already covered by NDCs.


4.6 Summary


To bridge the 2030 emissions gap and ensure long-term decarbonization consistent with the Paris Agreement goals, countries must enhance their mitigation ambition. This chapter has illustrated how enhanced ambition can be reflected in revised NDCs as well as in domestic policies, each with unique value. NDCs establish international accountability and convey a direction of travel to both domestic and international stakeholders, while domestic policies directly incentivize actions to reduce emissions.


When considering the mitigation ambition of either NDCs or domestic policies, it is important to consider the effect not only on the 2030 emissions gap, but also on long- term emissions trajectories to mid-century.


There are a range of options for enhancing both the coverage and stringency of domestic policies, including of G20 members. While all G20 countries have policies to support renewables in the electricity sector, stringency of these policies can still be enhanced. Gaps in both coverage and stringency remain in, for example, fossil fuel subsidy reduction, material efficiency measures in industry, oil and gas methane, support schemes for renewables in heating and cooling, emission standards for heavy duty vehicles, and e-mobility programmes.


Chapter 6 looks at the role that strengthened fiscal policies can play in creating stronger incentives for low- carbon investments and for reducing GHG emissions, with a particular emphasis on carbon pricing.


The technical potential for reducing GHG emissions is significant and could be sufficient to bridge the emissions gap in 2030. Three broad areas have the largest potential: renewable energy from wind and solar power; energy-efficient appliances and cars; and afforestation and stopping deforestation.


In all countries, there is significant potential to realize a substantive part of the technical mitigation potential by replicating proven good-practice policies that can simultaneously contribute to key Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Realizing this potential would narrow the gap by 2030 significantly beyond current NDCs.


This chapter summarizes only an initial list of perspectives, leaving out a number of important perspectives and opportunities. Non-state and subnational actors in particular have the opportunity both to be part of implementing mitigation commitments made at the national level and to go beyond current pledges and create the space for, and the trust of, national governments to raise ambition. Chapter 5 assesses the role of these actors in enhancing global climate ambition and bridging the emissions gap, based on the most recent literature.


Another important issue is the role that accelerated innovation can play in bridging the emissions gap and realizing the longer-term emission reductions required to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement with global implications. Chapter 7 explores how combining innovation in behavior and in the use of existing technologies with promoting investment in new technologies and market inventions has the potential to radically transform societies and reduce global GHG emissions.


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