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Chapter 4.


Bridging the gap: Strengthening NDCs and domestic policies


Authors: Taryn Fransen (World Resources Institute), Niklas Höhne (NewClimate Institute)


4.1 Introduction


The previous chapters of this report highlight the urgency of enhancing ambition and strengthening mitigation action without further delay. This chapter explores how countries can reflect increased mitigation ambition through enhanced Nationally Intended Contributions (NDCs) and strengthened domestic policies. Furthermore, it looks into the opportunities for bridging the emissions gap by delivering on enhanced ambition.


This chapter first sets out the rationale and context for enhancing ambition in NDCs, including the legal context of the Paris Agreement, which requires regularly enhanced ambition through five-year cycles, as well as factors that facilitate greater ambition (section 4.2). Next, it describes existing concepts of mitigation ambition in the context of NDCs, as well as options for them to reflect enhanced ambition in their NDCs (section 4.3). Enhanced ambition sends an important signal to stakeholders regarding mitigation commitment both internationally and domestically. As domestic policies are crucial to translating mitigation ambition into action, this chapter subsequently explores the extent to which main policy types, focusing specifically on G20 members, cover key sectors (section 4.4). Finally, it summarizes the main insights into how much global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions could be reduced through enhanced ambition and action from different perspectives (section 4.5), before highlighting the main conclusions (section 4.6).


4.2 Rationale and context for enhancing Nationally Determined Contributions


To increase climate ambition over time, the Paris Agreement establishes a five-year pledge-and-review cycle. Under this cycle, Parties prepare and communicate successive NDCs every five years. Each successive NDC is to represent a progression beyond the Party’s


current NDC, reflecting its highest possible ambition (UNFCCC, 2015). The Agreement notes that developed country Parties should continue taking the lead by setting economy-wide absolute emission reduction targets, while developing country Parties should continue enhancing their mitigation efforts, gradually moving towards economy-wide emission reduction or limitation targets in light of their capabilities and different national circumstances. From 2023, a five-yearly1


‘global


stocktake’ will assess collective progress towards the Agreement’s long-term goals and inform the next round of NDCs.


Prior to this, the Paris Decision invites those Parties with NDCs for 2025 to communicate a new NDC, and those with NDCs for 2030 to communicate or update their NDC, by 2020. This follows the 2018 Talanoa Dialogue to take stock of Parties’ collective efforts in relation to progress towards the Agreement’s long-term goals and to inform NDC preparation (see also chapter 1). The Decision also invites Parties to undertake mid-century, long-term, low- GHG emission development strategies, which may in turn inform near-term NDCs and policies (UNFCCC, 2016).


A number of factors have changed since Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) were communicated in the lead-up to 2015, creating a new context in which Parties may consider communicating or updating their NDCs for 2020. For example, the Paris Agreement has been adopted and ratified, indicating the terms under which international climate policy will proceed, and a growing number of countries have adopted or strengthened their domestic policy frameworks for addressing climate change (Iacobuta et al., 2018). Furthermore, the price of renewable energy and other low-carbon solutions has continued to fall more rapidly than expected (IRENA, 2018), and countries are continuing to decouple economic growth from GHG emissions. The 2018 Global Climate Action Summit revealed new actions and commitments on the part of non-state actors.


1 Unless otherwise decided by the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement.


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