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EMISSIONS GAP REPORT 2018 – TRENDS AND PROGRESS TOWARDS THE CANCUN PLEDGES, NDC TARGETS AND PEAKING OF EMISSIONS
percent lower emissions in 2030, while latest projections from the Climate Action Tracker only changed marginally (CAT, 2018g).
In July 2018, the new Basic Energy Plan was adopted by the Cabinet (METI, 2018). While the plan did not revise the electricity mix target underlying the NDC, it now refers to renewables as ‘main power sources’ of the future, which suggests a positive policy shift from the 2014 plan. Another positive sign from the new Basic Energy Plan is that for the first time it mentions phasing- out old, inefficient coal-fired power plants, though it continues to promote high-efficiency coal-fired power plants.
Mexico’s NDC makes an unconditional commitment to reduce GHG emissions by 22 percent below business as usual in 2030, implying a net emissions peak from 2026, and a conditional commitment to reduce emissions by 36 percent below business as usual in 2030. Mexico’s NDC also addresses black carbon emissions (UNFCCC, 2015). Studies disagree on whether Mexico is likely to meet its 2020 pledge (30 percent below business as usual) or NDC targets under current policies (Kuramochi et al., 2017a; CAT, 2018j). Recent Climate Action Tracker projections for 2030 are 1–4 percent lower than levels projected a year ago (CAT, 2018j).
expected for the period. Furthermore, there are no mechanisms in place to effectively monitor mitigation actions of subnational governments and private sector companies, hindering the tracking of the climate efforts.
Mexico updated its General Climate Change Law in late 2017 to create a mandatory carbon market from 2018 with a 3 year pilot phase (Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales, 2017). Moreover, the update also incorporated a mandate for the country to contribute to the fulfilment of the Paris Agreement.
The new federal government (2018–2024) has recognized the importance of the Paris Agreement and of increasing the proportion of renewable energy in the electricity mix. However, tensions are anticipated between the energy outlook (with a significant share of fossil fuels) and the expected emission reduction targets which will increase the NDC ambition.
In its NDC, the Republic of Korea has committed to reducing its GHG emissions by 37 percent below business as usual by 2030 (Ministry of Environment, 2018). The Government of Korea set up a road map in 2016 to achieve the national GHG emissions reduction target for 2030, which specifies emissions projections, reduction targets and major emission reduction plans for 8 sectors (Government of the Republic of Korea, 2017), though there is limited information about the implementation status of these sector-level plans.
By the end of 2017, Mexico’s National Institute of Ecology and Climate Change (INECC) had assessed the advancement of the Special Climate Change Program 2013–2018 (PECC by its Spanish acronym), which is the Mexican federal administration’s instrument for climate action. The assessment noted that only 43 percent of the programmed climate actions for the 2013–2018 period were completed (INECC, 2017) and that they reduced emissions by 30 MtCO2
e, a third of what the government
In June 2018, the road map was amended to reduce reliance on overseas credits from 11.3 percent to 4.5 percent (Ministry of Environment, 2018). Recent independent analyses (CAT, 2017a; PBL, 2017) indicate that the emission projections under current policies may fall short of the NDC emission level target. While the country has not rescinded its pledge to the UNFCCC for 2020, it has amended its Green Growth Basic Act to replace the 2020 pledge with the NDC target for 2030 (National Law Information Center, 2016).
In 2017, President Moon Jae-in announced that the Republic of Korea will reduce its dependency on coal-fired and nuclear power generation (Cheong Wa Dae, 2017; MOTIE, MOE and MOLIT, 2017), while increasing renewable electricity. Following this, the government adopted a new Basic Plan for Long-Term Electricity Supply and Demand covering the next 15 years, confirming the country intends to produce more electricity from renewable energy sources, while reducing its use of coal and nuclear power (CAT, 2018n; Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, 2018). This plan may result in an electricity generation mix in 2030 that is 23.9 percent nuclear, 36.1 percent coal, 18.8 percent natural gas and 20 percent renewable energy. Analysis indicates that these announcements, if fully implemented, together with the expected lower level of electricity demand, may lead to reductions of 53–69 MtCO2
e/year (7–9 percent)
below current policies scenario projections in 2030. However, this is not enough for the country to achieve its NDC target (CAT, 2018n).
Russia pledged to limit GHG emissions by 15–25 percent below 1990 levels by 2020 and proposed in its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) to reduce GHG emissions by 25–30 percent below 1990 levels by 2030. Although Russia has reaffirmed its 2020 target in subsequently adopted policies, it had not ratified the Paris Agreement as at August 2018 and is the only major emitter that has not done so. While accounting of emissions from LULUCF remains unclear, provisions in the INDC suggest that its target includes these emissions. Recently published studies (Kuramochi et al., 2017a; CAT, 2018k) suggest that under current policies, Russia is likely to meet its 2020 pledge and reach the lower end of its 2030 INDC range. In July 2017, the Government of Russia introduced a plan to reform all existing federal laws concerning energy generation facilities to include renewable energy microgeneration for facilities with installed capacity up to 15 kW (Government of Russia, 2017; Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources, 2017).
contribute to economic diversification and adaptation. The baseline for this NDC target has not been communicated as at August 2018, due to unresolved questions on the allocation of oil production to domestic consumption or export. Under current policies, Saudi Arabia is expected to achieve GHG emission levels of 1,115–1,175 MtCO2
In its NDC, Saudi Arabia commits to reducing emissions by up to 130 MtCO2
e/year by 2030 through actions that e/year by 2030 (CAT, 2018l). year by 2030, quantified using a baseline range (the
According to these projections, Saudi Arabia will clearly miss its NDC emissions levels of 940–1,120 MtCO2
e/
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