11


2.4.2 Emissions trends and targets of individual G20 members15


Argentina’s revised NDC introduced at COP 22 in 2016 presents an unconditional GHG emissions target of 483 MtCO2


unconditional target is met, emissions would increase by 19 percent above 2010 levels in 2030. The current policies scenario projected by Climate Action Tracker for 2030 (CAT, 2018b) was lowered by about 5 percent from its projection in 2016. Nevertheless, Argentina is likely to miss its NDC targets if it does not change its current policies (Ministry of the Environment and Sustainable Development Argentina, 2015).


369 MtCO2 12


To help achieve its NDC targets, the Government of Argentina established a National Cabinet for Climate Change to facilitate discussions and agreements between 17 ministries on policies and measures to be implemented relating to the targets. These discussions have resulted in the development of mitigation action


8 4 4 GtCO2e


e/year by 2030 and a further conditional target of e/year (Government of Argentina, 2016). If the


16


1990 2010 Current policies (official data) Current policies (all studies) Unconditional NDC (all studies) Conditional NDC (all studies)


plans for the energy, forestry and transport sectors, with plans for industry, infrastructure and agriculture to be introduced shortly. The action on implementing renewable energy in Argentina’s energy mix is particularly notable and is supported by 2 laws, one promoting renewable energy and implemented primarily through the RenovAr programme (which auctions renewable power capacity) and the other introducing distributed generation (though implementation is pending detailed ruling). The entire package of unconditional actions in sectoral plans is expected to reduce emissions by approximately 110 MtCO2


e/year by 2030 compared with


the baseline. The success of these mitigation actions in achieving the 2030 unconditional NDC target depends on several factors, including the opposition of civil society to the construction of two mega hydroelectric dams in Patagonia and to two new nuclear power plants, and the country’s recurrent financial constraints to sustain the implementation of some actions, such as the RenovAr program.


0 Figure 2.4b.


0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0


Argentina Australia Brazil Canada Indonesia Japan Mexico Russia China EU-28 India USA (2025)* 4 GtCO2e


1990 2010 Current policies (official data) Current policies (all studies) Unconditional NDC (all studies) Conditional NDC (all studies)


Saudi Arabia


South Africa**


Republic of Korea


Turkey


** South Africa’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) is based on an emissions trajectory with an emissions range of 398–614 MtCO2 including LULUCF over the 2025–2030 period.


e


15 For a more comprehensive assessment of climate change mitigation policies including sector- and technology-specific policies in G20 countries, see, for example, Climate Transparency (2017).


Emissions (GtCO2e/yr) Emissions (GtCO2e/yr)


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