Project: A2953 Client: East Anglia Offshore Wind Limited Title:
East Anglia THREE– Navigation Risk Assessment 26 Future Case with Windfarm
26.1 Commercial Shipping Estimated Future Case 389. Over recent years the vessel arrivals and tonnages at the ports closest to the East Anglia THREE site have decreased (see Section 7.5).
390. No proposals have been identified which are likely to significantly impact the volume of shipping in the vicinity of the windfarm, other than that associated with the offshore windfarm developments in the area.
391. However, given the uncertainty associated with long-term predictions of this nature including the potential for any major new developments in UK or Transboundary ports, a conservative (i.e., high) potential growth in shipping movements of 10% was estimated over the life of the windfarm.
26.2 Commercial Fishing Estimated Future Case
392. The Commercial Fisheries Assessment (Chapter 14 Commercial Fisheries) considered the potential changes to the fishing baseline over the life of the development. It is recognised that this is a speculative exercise due to the numerous unpredictable direct and indirect factors which could materially affect fisheries. A 10% increase in fishing activity has been assumed.
26.3 Recreational Estimated Future Case 393.
In terms of recreational vessel activity, there are no major developments known of
that would increase the activity of these vessels in the area. Based on the discussion presented, the future level of activity has been assumed to increase by 10% compared to the current levels.
26.4 Collision and Allision Probabilities
394. The potential increase in vessel activity levels would increase the probability of ship- to-structure allisions (both powered and drifting). Whilst in reality the risk would vary by vessel type, size and route, it is roughly estimated this would lead to a linear 10% increase in the base case allision risks.
395. The increased activity would also increase the probability of vessel-to-vessel encounters and hence collisions. Whilst this is not a direct result of the proposed windfarm, the increased congestion caused by the site and potential displacement of traffic in the area may have an influence. Again, a 10% overall increase is assumed.
26.5 Risk Results Summary
396. The base case and future case annual levels of risk without and with the proposed East Anglia THREE project are summarised in Table 26.1 and Table 26.2. The change in risk
Date: Doc:
07.05.2014 A2539 East Anglia THREE Windfarm Appendix 15.1 Page: 166
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