editorialview by Dr Richard Stevenson, Editor Don’t ask me
FROM TIME TO TIME I’m asked if it would be a good idea to buy shares in a particular company within the compound semiconductor industry. When that happens, I try to refrain from giving advice: Although I have some understanding of the technology in this sector, I don’t have enough business acumen to be confident of backing the right firm.
My confidence in my belief that I should not offer financial advice has been bolstered following a look at how the share prices of the leading III-V firms have fared in the last 12 months (if you want the details, take a look at A mixed year for III-V shares on p36).
The LED industry is currently caught up in a blood bath, due to supply outpacing demand by a significant margin, and I would have cautioned anyone that suggested investing in this sector.
But there is money to be made there if you back the right horse, in this case Cree.
Shares in this US outfit have rocketed by about 80 percent in the last year, with most of the gains coming in 2013. The company is churning out a healthy profit quarter after quarter,
Editor Dr Richard Stevenson
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and it is not waiting on the sidelines for the revolution in solid-state lighting to take off – it is rolling up its sleeves and launching competitive products that will make this happen.
The product line that impresses me the most is the recently released replacements for 40 W and 60 W incandescents – these competitively priced products propelled the share price north when they were announced.
The warm-white 60 W equivalent retails for $12.97, produces 800 lumens and draws just 9.5 W, giving it an efficacy of just over 84 lm/W.
From my perspective, the only downside is that I can’t buy them: Cree is targeting its domestic market, and selling these bulbs through Home Depot.
That’s annoying, because I’m happy to invest in solid-state lighting: I can calculate the return it will give, and know that it’s worthwhile.
After all, it’s not like investing in shares, where a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing, and I can’t be sure that I’d be making shrewd investments.
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June 2013
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