810 B. Moraes et al.
et al., 2014). In the Amazon, deforestation can alter the balance of the forest and transform it into a savannah environment (Costa & Pires, 2010). Future climate change projections indicate a 20% increase in aridity, both for the Amazon rainforest and for the north-east of Brazil (Franchito et al., 2014), and an increase in temperature (Marengo et al., 2017). Biodiversity hotspots, such as the Cerrado and the Atlantic Forest, are predicted to be adverse- ly affected by future climate change and to lose c. 25%of their endemic species (Bellard et al., 2014) because they are projected to become arid lands (Costa & Pires, 2010; Franchito et al., 2014). It is believed that there will be changes in land use because of the projected decrease in herbaceous vegetation in the Cerrado and an increase in the extent of fragmentation and conversion to pasture in the Atlantic Forest (Bellard et al., 2014). Changes in spatial configuration and habitat quality may affect the distribution and density of primate species (Estrada et al., 2017), as well as the quantity and quality of food resources available to them (Dunn et al., 2009; Morellato et al., 2016). To suggest important areas for conservation action, we
identified protected areas that will maintain climate suitabil- ity in the future and may serve as a refuge for the target spe- cies. These areas were well represented in the areas suitable for S. libidinosus, but much less so in the areas suitable for A. belzebul and S. flavius. This indicates the importance of expanding or creating new protected areas for the latter two species, especially in the north-east Atlantic Forest. Al- though the overall percentage of protected areas affected by urban settlements was relatively low in our study (c. 14%), a larger proportion of the areas suitable for S. flavius was affected by human settlements (c. 33%). Human settlements close to areas suitable for these primates may result in hunt- ing, but no data are available on current hunting pressure on S. flavius. Overexploitation has already eradicated sev- eral primate populations in Brazil, including populations of capuchin monkeys (Estrada et al., 2018). Strengthening en- vironmental policies and enforcing laws is key to preventing hunting and further deforestation (Brancalion et al., 2016; Estrada et al., 2018). Our study highlights concern regarding the conservation
of Neotropical primates in general. We provide important information for the conservation of three primate species, two of which are part of the Brazilian Action Plan for the Conservation of Primates in Northeast Brazil. Although the three target species inhabit areas considered to be of global conservation importance (Brooks et al., 2006), the areas predicted to be suitable for these species are mostly outside protected areas and have low forest cover, espe- cially in the Atlantic Forest. The Brazilian government has designated priority areas for conservation, but these are not sufficient to maintain the primate populations we have studied. By determining suitable areas for the occur- rence of the target species under present and future
conditions we have identified areas where conservation efforts should focus, to reduce habitat destruction and fragmentation. Creating and maintaining protected areas could help to preserve forested areas and contribute to the survival of these species. Our models show that future climate change could lead
to substantial range losses for the three primate species. This is of concern as these changes can affect the establishment of populations and their ability to survive in these areas in the long term. Our findings will facilitate assessment of the conservation status of each species and the establishment of goals in action plans for the conservation of other pri- mate species inhabiting the same regions. We will share our findings and recommendations with key stakeholders such as the Centro Nacional de Pesquisa e Conservação de Primatas Brasileiros from the Chico Mendes Institute for Biodiversity Conservation, an administrative arm respon- sible for primate conservation action plans in Brazil. The sharing of our impartial scientific study may help such institutions plan future conservation actions, considering that the current Brazilian government is weakening envir- onmental laws, leading to further deforestation, fragmen- tation and destruction of wildlife habitats in the country (Ferrante & Fearnside, 2019).
Acknowledgements We thank Felipe França, José da Silva, Silvanete da Silva, Antônio Alencar Sampaio, Guga do Pinheiro, João da Silva and Yuri Marinho for assistance with fieldwork, Agência Estadual de Meio Ambiente in the Pimenteira State Park, the ParnamirimIrrigated Agriculture Station—UFRPE and the Programa de Pós-graduação em Biologia Animal (Graduate Programme in Animal Biology) for logistical support.We thank Enrico Bernard,MariaAdeliaOliveira and João Lucas Feitosa for fruitful discussions on earlier stages of this study. We acknowledge funding to BLCM from Fundação de Amparo a Ciência e Tecnologia do Estado de Pernambuco (FACEPE; grant number: IBPG-1013-2.04/14) and Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personal (CAPES; grant number: PDSE 88881.134891/ 2016-01); to JPS-A from CAPES (grant number: 527091) and FACEPE (grant numbers: BCT-0025-2.05/17; BFP0149-2.05/10); to OR through a Natural Environment Research Council Independent Research Fellowship (NE/M018660/1). This study is a new contribution from the blonde capuchin research and conservation project supported by the Mohamed bin Zayed Species Conservation Fund, Margot Marsh Biodiversity Foundation, Rufford Small Grant Foundation, FACEPE (grant numbers: APQ-1534-2.04/10; APQ-0143-2.04/14; BFT-0160- 2.04/17; BFT-0014-2.05/20) and Brazilian National Council for Scien- tific and Technological Development (CNPq; grant numbers: Universal 445071/2014-1; Pq2 309256/2019-4).
Author contributions Study design: BM, BB; fieldwork: BM; data analysis and writing: all authors.
Conflicts of interest None.
Ethical standards This research abides by the Oryx guidelines on ethical standards and was carried out in compliance with Brazilian law (fieldwork licence: SISBIO/ICMBio—52404-1; license for inter- views: Plataforma Brasil—CAAE-49198215.3.0000.5208/Approval- 1.266.360).
Oryx, 2020, 54(6), 803–813 © The Author(s), 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Fauna & Flora International doi:10.1017/S0030605319001388
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